Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–22 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.1% 33.2–37.1% 32.7–37.6% 32.2–38.1% 31.3–39.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 37–42 37–43 36–43 35–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100% Last Result
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.1%  
37 8% 96%  
38 13% 88%  
39 20% 75%  
40 22% 55% Median
41 16% 33%  
42 12% 18%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.5% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 10% 97% Last Result
20 17% 87%  
21 30% 70% Median
22 21% 40%  
23 13% 20%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.5% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 6% 99.0%  
14 16% 93%  
15 29% 77% Median
16 28% 47%  
17 13% 20%  
18 5% 7%  
19 1.2% 1.3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 16% 97%  
9 34% 81% Median
10 31% 47%  
11 13% 16%  
12 3% 3% Last Result
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 16% 98%  
8 37% 83% Median
9 30% 46%  
10 13% 15%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 7% 99.7%  
6 36% 92%  
7 37% 56% Median
8 16% 20%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–78 74–79 73–79 72–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 68–73 68–73 67–74 66–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 59–63 58–64 57–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 56 99.8% 54–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 99.2% 53–58 52–58 52–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 49 23% 47–52 46–52 46–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.9% 44–49 43–49 43–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 1.5% 44–49 43–49 43–50 42–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 3% 99.2%  
74 9% 96%  
75 18% 87%  
76 20% 70% Median
77 23% 50%  
78 17% 27%  
79 7% 9% Last Result
80 2% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100% Last Result
66 1.0% 99.8%  
67 4% 98.7%  
68 8% 95%  
69 16% 87%  
70 23% 70% Median
71 20% 48%  
72 17% 27%  
73 7% 10%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 6% 97%  
59 12% 91%  
60 18% 79%  
61 22% 60% Median
62 18% 38%  
63 12% 20%  
64 5% 8%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 98.9%  
53 6% 97%  
54 12% 90%  
55 20% 78%  
56 22% 58% Last Result, Median
57 17% 36%  
58 11% 19%  
59 6% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.2% Majority
52 5% 98%  
53 11% 92%  
54 18% 82%  
55 19% 63% Median
56 19% 44%  
57 15% 25%  
58 7% 10%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 5% 98% Last Result
47 11% 92%  
48 16% 82%  
49 23% 65% Median
50 19% 42%  
51 13% 23% Majority
52 7% 11%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.9% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 5% 98%  
44 11% 92%  
45 21% 81% Median
46 18% 61%  
47 21% 43%  
48 12% 22%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 0.9% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.5% 99.6%  
43 4% 98%  
44 8% 94% Last Result
45 17% 86%  
46 20% 68%  
47 19% 49% Median
48 16% 29%  
49 9% 13%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.1% 1.5% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.1%  
34 7% 96%  
35 14% 89%  
36 19% 74% Median
37 23% 55%  
38 18% 32%  
39 8% 14%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.2%  
29 7% 96%  
30 16% 89%  
31 21% 74% Median
32 23% 52%  
33 15% 29%  
34 9% 14%  
35 4% 5%  
36 1.1% 1.4%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.5% 99.7%  
25 5% 98%  
26 12% 93%  
27 21% 81%  
28 23% 60% Median
29 20% 37% Last Result
30 11% 17%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 10% 96%  
21 22% 87%  
22 23% 64% Median
23 23% 41%  
24 12% 19%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations