Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 25 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.0% 25.7–30.4% 25.1–31.1% 24.6–31.7% 23.5–32.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.2–19.1% 14.6–19.7% 14.2–20.2% 13.4–21.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.0% 13.3–17.0% 12.8–17.6% 12.4–18.1% 11.6–19.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.3–16.0% 11.8–16.5% 11.4–17.0% 10.7–18.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.0% 9.5–12.8% 9.1–13.3% 8.7–13.8% 8.1–14.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.5–11.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5% 0.9–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 29–35 28–36 27–36 25–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 13–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–18 13–19 12–19 12–21
Eesti 200 0 14 12–17 12–17 11–18 10–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–10 5–10 5–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.4%  
27 3% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 5% 92%  
30 8% 87%  
31 13% 78%  
32 19% 65% Median
33 18% 46%  
34 15% 28% Last Result
35 8% 13%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.0% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 6% 97%  
16 12% 91%  
17 20% 80%  
18 22% 60% Median
19 18% 38% Last Result
20 11% 20%  
21 5% 10%  
22 3% 4%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.5%  
13 11% 97%  
14 21% 86%  
15 25% 65% Median
16 18% 39%  
17 10% 22%  
18 5% 12%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 9% 97%  
13 19% 88%  
14 21% 69% Median
15 21% 48%  
16 16% 27%  
17 7% 11%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 4% 99.5%  
9 12% 96%  
10 22% 84% Last Result
11 26% 62% Median
12 20% 36%  
13 10% 16%  
14 4% 5%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 18% 96%  
7 33% 78% Median
8 26% 46%  
9 13% 20%  
10 5% 7%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 65 100% 62–69 61–70 60–71 59–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 99.5% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 50% 47–54 46–55 45–56 43–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 47% 47–53 45–54 44–55 43–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 13% 44–51 43–52 42–53 41–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0.1% 40–46 38–47 37–48 36–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 38–44 37–46 36–47 35–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 36–43 35–44 35–44 33–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 31–37 30–38 30–39 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 33 0% 30–36 30–38 29–38 28–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–32 25–33 25–34 23–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.5%  
60 2% 98%  
61 5% 97%  
62 7% 92%  
63 10% 85%  
64 14% 75%  
65 13% 62% Median
66 15% 49%  
67 12% 34%  
68 8% 22%  
69 7% 14%  
70 3% 7%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.9% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.5% Majority
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 97%  
54 5% 93%  
55 9% 88%  
56 13% 79%  
57 13% 66% Median
58 18% 54%  
59 11% 36%  
60 10% 25%  
61 7% 14%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 4% 97%  
47 6% 93%  
48 9% 88%  
49 11% 79%  
50 17% 68% Median
51 13% 50% Majority
52 15% 38%  
53 9% 23%  
54 8% 14%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.9% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 3% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 6% 90%  
48 10% 85%  
49 13% 75%  
50 16% 62% Median
51 18% 47% Majority
52 11% 29%  
53 9% 18% Last Result
54 4% 9%  
55 3% 4%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 7% 93%  
45 10% 86%  
46 13% 76%  
47 16% 63% Median
48 13% 47%  
49 13% 34%  
50 9% 22%  
51 7% 13% Majority
52 3% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.0%  
38 3% 97%  
39 4% 95%  
40 6% 91%  
41 9% 85%  
42 14% 76%  
43 16% 62% Median
44 16% 46% Last Result
45 13% 30%  
46 9% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 5% 97%  
38 10% 92%  
39 14% 82%  
40 18% 68% Median
41 14% 50%  
42 12% 36%  
43 9% 24%  
44 6% 15%  
45 4% 9%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.6%  
34 1.4% 98.9%  
35 3% 98%  
36 5% 95%  
37 8% 90%  
38 14% 81%  
39 15% 67% Median
40 17% 52%  
41 14% 35%  
42 9% 21%  
43 7% 13%  
44 4% 6%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.4% 99.5%  
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 94%  
32 16% 84%  
33 18% 68% Median
34 16% 50%  
35 12% 34%  
36 7% 22%  
37 6% 14%  
38 4% 9%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 1.0% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.6%  
30 7% 95%  
31 11% 89%  
32 17% 77%  
33 16% 60% Median
34 15% 44%  
35 11% 29%  
36 8% 18%  
37 5% 10%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.6% 1.0%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 1.3% 99.3%  
25 4% 98%  
26 8% 94%  
27 12% 87%  
28 17% 74%  
29 16% 58% Last Result, Median
30 17% 42%  
31 11% 25%  
32 7% 14%  
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.9%  
22 2% 98.9%  
23 5% 97%  
24 16% 92%  
25 10% 76%  
26 25% 66% Median
27 16% 42%  
28 9% 26%  
29 9% 17%  
30 4% 8%  
31 1.5% 4%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations