Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 23–29 August 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 7% 97%  
34 14% 90% Last Result
35 20% 77%  
36 17% 56% Median
37 20% 39%  
38 11% 19%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.6%  
25 11% 94%  
26 22% 83%  
27 22% 61% Median
28 17% 38%  
29 14% 21%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 6% 98.7%  
15 22% 92%  
16 25% 70% Median
17 24% 45%  
18 14% 21%  
19 5% 7%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 5% 99.8%  
8 21% 95%  
9 34% 73% Median
10 29% 40%  
11 9% 11%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.8%  
6 31% 92%  
7 39% 61% Median
8 18% 22%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 4% 98%  
5 34% 94%  
6 38% 60% Median
7 19% 22%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 79 100% 77–82 77–82 76–83 75–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 68–72 67–73 66–74 65–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 60–65 60–66 59–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 80% 50–55 49–55 49–56 47–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 43% 48–53 47–54 46–54 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 15% 46–51 45–52 45–52 43–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 29 0% 27–31 26–32 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 20–24 19–25 18–25 16–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.6% 99.9%  
76 4% 99.3%  
77 7% 95%  
78 19% 88%  
79 28% 69% Last Result, Median
80 21% 42%  
81 9% 20%  
82 8% 11%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.4% 1.1%  
85 0.5% 0.7%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
66 3% 99.2%  
67 6% 96%  
68 16% 90%  
69 19% 74%  
70 22% 55% Median
71 18% 33%  
72 8% 15%  
73 4% 7%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.9% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.9%  
59 3% 99.2%  
60 7% 96%  
61 10% 89%  
62 16% 78%  
63 24% 62% Median
64 18% 39%  
65 12% 20%  
66 5% 8%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.8% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 5% 98%  
50 12% 92%  
51 15% 80% Majority
52 20% 65% Median
53 17% 45%  
54 15% 27%  
55 8% 13%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.0% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 5% 97%  
48 13% 92%  
49 15% 79%  
50 21% 64% Median
51 18% 43% Majority
52 13% 26%  
53 8% 13%  
54 4% 5%  
55 0.9% 1.4%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 1.3% 99.2%  
45 5% 98%  
46 9% 93%  
47 16% 84%  
48 21% 67%  
49 19% 47% Median
50 13% 28%  
51 9% 15% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 4% 98%  
41 11% 94%  
42 15% 83%  
43 20% 68% Median
44 19% 48%  
45 16% 29% Last Result
46 7% 13%  
47 4% 6%  
48 0.9% 1.5%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.5%  
40 8% 96%  
41 14% 88%  
42 21% 74%  
43 21% 53% Median
44 14% 31%  
45 10% 18%  
46 5% 7% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.9% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.4%  
38 4% 98%  
39 9% 94%  
40 15% 85%  
41 18% 70%  
42 19% 52% Median
43 15% 33%  
44 10% 17% Last Result
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.7% 99.5%  
29 3% 98.8% Last Result
30 5% 95%  
31 14% 90%  
32 18% 76%  
33 24% 58% Median
34 19% 34%  
35 9% 15%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.3% 99.6%  
25 2% 98%  
26 5% 97%  
27 14% 92%  
28 23% 78%  
29 22% 55% Median
30 13% 34%  
31 12% 21%  
32 6% 8%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 0.7% 99.1%  
18 1.0% 98%  
19 4% 97%  
20 11% 93%  
21 18% 82%  
22 20% 64% Median
23 26% 44%  
24 12% 19%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations