Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 August–5 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.7–33.6% 28.3–34.0% 27.4–35.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.9% 21.3–24.7% 20.8–25.2% 20.4–25.6% 19.6–26.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Eesti 200 0 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 8–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 6% 98%  
33 11% 92%  
34 18% 81% Last Result
35 22% 63% Median
36 19% 41%  
37 13% 22%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.7%  
22 5% 98%  
23 14% 93%  
24 21% 79%  
25 23% 58% Median
26 19% 35%  
27 11% 16%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.1% 1.4%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 13% 97%  
13 27% 84%  
14 30% 56% Median
15 18% 26%  
16 6% 8%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.1% 100%  
9 11% 98.9%  
10 30% 88%  
11 29% 58% Median
12 20% 30%  
13 9% 10%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 7% 99.4%  
8 28% 92%  
9 37% 64% Median
10 20% 27% Last Result
11 6% 7%  
12 0.9% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 12% 99.1%  
7 36% 87%  
8 35% 51% Median
9 14% 16%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 71–76 70–77 69–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 68 100% 65–70 65–70 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 58–62 57–63 56–64 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 69% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 18% 46–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 1.1% 44–49 43–49 43–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 3% 99.3%  
71 6% 97%  
72 13% 90%  
73 23% 77%  
74 25% 54% Median
75 16% 30%  
76 9% 14%  
77 4% 5%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 1.1% 99.7%  
64 4% 98.6%  
65 7% 95% Last Result
66 18% 88%  
67 17% 70%  
68 25% 53% Median
69 15% 28%  
70 8% 13%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.8% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.8% 99.8%  
56 3% 99.0%  
57 6% 96%  
58 13% 91%  
59 17% 78%  
60 21% 60% Median
61 20% 39%  
62 12% 20%  
63 5% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.4% 99.6%  
48 4% 98%  
49 9% 94%  
50 16% 86%  
51 19% 69% Majority
52 17% 50% Median
53 19% 34%  
54 9% 14%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.4% 2% Last Result
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.8%  
45 3% 98.9%  
46 7% 96%  
47 13% 89%  
48 20% 76%  
49 20% 56% Median
50 18% 36%  
51 10% 18% Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 5% 98%  
44 10% 92%  
45 18% 82%  
46 22% 64%  
47 18% 42% Median
48 13% 24%  
49 7% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.9% 1.1% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 7% 97%  
42 13% 90%  
43 17% 77%  
44 20% 60% Last Result, Median
45 18% 40%  
46 13% 22%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.1% 99.8%  
39 3% 98.7%  
40 8% 95%  
41 14% 87%  
42 20% 73%  
43 20% 52% Median
44 16% 32%  
45 11% 16%  
46 4% 6% Last Result
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.7%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 9% 96%  
37 13% 87%  
38 24% 74%  
39 19% 50% Median
40 16% 31%  
41 10% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
30 3% 99.2%  
31 8% 97%  
32 14% 89%  
33 20% 75%  
34 21% 56% Median
35 17% 35%  
36 11% 17%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.8%  
27 4% 98.6%  
28 9% 94%  
29 20% 86%  
30 24% 66%  
31 20% 41% Median
32 12% 21%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 6% 98%  
21 14% 92%  
22 25% 78%  
23 26% 53% Median
24 15% 27%  
25 8% 11%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations