Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–12 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.4% 28.6–32.3% 28.1–32.9% 27.6–33.3% 26.8–34.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 27 25–29 24–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Eesti 200 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 8% 94%  
33 15% 86%  
34 21% 71% Last Result, Median
35 22% 50%  
36 16% 28%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.8%  
24 4% 98.9%  
25 10% 95%  
26 18% 85%  
27 25% 67% Median
28 20% 42%  
29 13% 22%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 15% 98%  
15 31% 83%  
16 21% 52% Median
17 14% 31%  
18 13% 17%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 6% 99.7%  
7 26% 94%  
8 37% 68% Median
9 24% 31%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 6% 99.5%  
7 28% 93%  
8 45% 66% Median
9 16% 21%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 11% 99.2%  
7 34% 88%  
8 35% 54% Median
9 15% 19%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 76–80 75–80 75–81 73–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 67–72 67–72 66–73 65–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 59–64 59–65 58–65 57–66
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 61% 48–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 43% 48–53 47–54 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 50 48% 48–53 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 39–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 6% 98%  
76 18% 91%  
77 26% 74% Median
78 21% 47%  
79 14% 26% Last Result
80 9% 12%  
81 3% 3%  
82 0.5% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
66 3% 98.8%  
67 7% 96%  
68 15% 89%  
69 18% 74% Median
70 22% 55%  
71 18% 33%  
72 10% 15%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.0% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 1.1% 99.8%  
58 3% 98.7%  
59 7% 96%  
60 16% 88%  
61 17% 73% Median
62 24% 56%  
63 16% 32%  
64 10% 16%  
65 4% 6%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 7% 97%  
49 12% 90%  
50 17% 78%  
51 20% 61% Median, Majority
52 17% 40%  
53 12% 23%  
54 7% 11%  
55 3% 4%  
56 1.1% 1.4%  
57 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 4% 98%  
48 8% 94%  
49 18% 86%  
50 26% 69% Median
51 22% 43% Majority
52 11% 21%  
53 5% 10%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.9% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.0%  
47 6% 97%  
48 9% 91%  
49 16% 82%  
50 18% 66% Median
51 20% 48% Majority
52 15% 28%  
53 9% 13%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.7% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 6% 98%  
41 15% 92%  
42 18% 77%  
43 20% 58% Median
44 15% 38%  
45 10% 23% Last Result
46 7% 13%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.6%  
39 5% 98%  
40 10% 93%  
41 13% 82%  
42 17% 69% Median
43 21% 52%  
44 19% 32%  
45 8% 13%  
46 4% 4% Last Result
47 0.7% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.4%  
39 5% 98%  
40 12% 93%  
41 14% 81%  
42 21% 67% Median
43 20% 46%  
44 13% 26% Last Result
45 9% 13%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.9% 1.2%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 4% 97%  
33 10% 93%  
34 19% 83%  
35 26% 64% Median
36 19% 38%  
37 12% 19%  
38 4% 7%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 8% 97%  
30 13% 89%  
31 22% 76%  
32 22% 53% Median
33 16% 31%  
34 10% 16%  
35 4% 5%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.8%  
21 6% 98%  
22 16% 92%  
23 25% 76%  
24 21% 51% Median
25 14% 30%  
26 10% 16%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations