Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 8–14 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.7% 27.2–30.3% 26.8–30.7% 26.4–31.1% 25.7–31.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.8% 21.4–24.2% 21.0–24.7% 20.7–25.0% 20.0–25.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 13.8% 12.7–15.1% 12.4–15.4% 12.1–15.7% 11.6–16.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.9% 9.9–12.0% 9.6–12.3% 9.4–12.6% 8.9–13.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.9% 9.9–12.0% 9.6–12.3% 9.4–12.6% 8.9–13.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.9% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.6–9.4% 6.2–9.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–35 30–35 30–35 29–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–13
Eesti 200 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 5% 98%  
31 14% 93%  
32 25% 79%  
33 28% 54% Median
34 15% 26% Last Result
35 9% 11%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 9% 98%  
24 24% 89%  
25 28% 64% Median
26 21% 36%  
27 11% 15%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 22% 97%  
14 35% 75% Median
15 31% 40%  
16 7% 9%  
17 1.3% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 6% 99.7%  
10 35% 94% Last Result
11 38% 59% Median
12 18% 21%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.4% 99.8%  
10 26% 98%  
11 61% 73% Median
12 11% 12%  
13 0.5% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 11% 99.6%  
7 40% 89% Median
8 42% 49%  
9 7% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 70–73 70–74 69–75 68–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 63–67 63–68 62–68 61–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 56–60 55–60 55–61 54–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 61% 49–53 48–53 48–54 47–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 0.8% 45–49 44–49 44–50 43–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 0.5% 45–49 44–49 44–50 43–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 42–45 41–46 40–46 40–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 38–42 38–43 37–43 36–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–42 35–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 22–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.8% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 12% 97%  
71 20% 85%  
72 31% 65% Median
73 24% 34%  
74 7% 10%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.3%  
63 7% 96%  
64 22% 89%  
65 26% 67% Last Result, Median
66 23% 41%  
67 13% 18%  
68 5% 6%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 2% 99.7%  
55 5% 98%  
56 15% 93%  
57 20% 78%  
58 30% 58% Median
59 15% 28%  
60 8% 12%  
61 4% 4%  
62 0.6% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 1.3% 99.7%  
48 4% 98%  
49 12% 94%  
50 21% 82%  
51 29% 61% Median, Majority
52 17% 32%  
53 11% 15%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.7% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 2% 99.8%  
44 5% 98%  
45 12% 93%  
46 27% 81% Median
47 23% 55%  
48 19% 31%  
49 8% 12%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.7% 0.8% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.1% 99.8%  
44 4% 98.7%  
45 13% 95%  
46 20% 81%  
47 29% 61% Median
48 20% 33%  
49 10% 13%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 6% 97%  
42 18% 91%  
43 25% 73%  
44 25% 48% Last Result, Median
45 13% 22%  
46 7% 9%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.9%  
37 4% 99.1%  
38 10% 95%  
39 17% 85%  
40 33% 68% Median
41 16% 35%  
42 14% 20%  
43 5% 6%  
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.5% 100%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 8% 97%  
38 21% 89%  
39 24% 68% Median
40 23% 44%  
41 14% 21%  
42 5% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 5% 99.1%  
34 12% 94%  
35 27% 82%  
36 23% 56% Median
37 18% 33%  
38 10% 15%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.2% 99.9%  
30 5% 98.7%  
31 16% 94%  
32 32% 78% Median
33 26% 46%  
34 14% 20%  
35 5% 6%  
36 1.0% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 7% 98.9%  
24 25% 92%  
25 37% 67% Median
26 21% 30%  
27 7% 8%  
28 1.2% 1.4%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations