Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 16 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.0% 30.4–35.8% 29.6–36.6% 29.0–37.3% 27.8–38.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 15.9–20.4% 15.4–21.0% 14.9–21.6% 13.9–22.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.0% 13.1–17.2% 12.6–17.8% 12.1–18.4% 11.3–19.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.0% 10.3–14.1% 9.8–14.6% 9.4–15.2% 8.7–16.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.5–10.9% 7.1–11.4% 6.8–11.8% 6.2–12.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.2% 5.1–9.6% 4.5–10.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4% 1.1–3.6% 0.9–4.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.0% 0.2–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–42 34–43 33–44 32–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 11–21
Eesti 200 0 12 10–15 10–15 9–16 8–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–11 7–11 6–12 5–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–9 4–9 0–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 3% 98.5%  
34 5% 96% Last Result
35 8% 91%  
36 11% 83%  
37 14% 73%  
38 15% 59% Median
39 11% 44%  
40 14% 33%  
41 9% 19%  
42 5% 10%  
43 3% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.3%  
16 5% 97%  
17 9% 92%  
18 18% 83%  
19 18% 65% Last Result, Median
20 17% 46%  
21 11% 29%  
22 11% 18%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.9%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.0%  
13 9% 96%  
14 14% 87%  
15 19% 74%  
16 22% 55% Median
17 16% 33%  
18 9% 18%  
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 4% 99.2%  
10 12% 96%  
11 18% 84%  
12 23% 65% Median
13 20% 43%  
14 12% 23%  
15 7% 10%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.0% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 4% 99.3%  
7 14% 96%  
8 29% 82%  
9 23% 53% Median
10 17% 30% Last Result
11 9% 14%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 1.4% 98%  
5 15% 96%  
6 33% 81% Median
7 24% 48%  
8 15% 24%  
9 7% 9%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 70–76 69–77 68–78 67–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–67 60–68 59–69 57–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 99.5% 54–61 53–62 52–63 51–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 89% 50–58 49–59 49–59 47–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 53 86% 50–57 49–58 48–59 46–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 10% 43–50 43–52 42–52 40–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 2% 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 38–45 37–46 36–47 34–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–35 27–35 26–36 24–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 25–31 24–32 24–33 22–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 22–28 21–28 20–29 19–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.5%  
68 2% 98.8%  
69 4% 97%  
70 6% 93%  
71 12% 87%  
72 12% 75%  
73 16% 63% Median
74 14% 48%  
75 14% 33%  
76 9% 19%  
77 5% 9%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.5% 2% Last Result
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 1.0% 99.1%  
59 3% 98%  
60 4% 95%  
61 9% 91%  
62 7% 83%  
63 17% 76% Median
64 17% 59%  
65 10% 42% Last Result
66 14% 32%  
67 9% 18%  
68 5% 9%  
69 2% 4%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.5% Majority
52 2% 98.7%  
53 4% 97% Last Result
54 7% 93%  
55 10% 86%  
56 11% 76%  
57 13% 65% Median
58 15% 53%  
59 13% 38%  
60 12% 25%  
61 6% 13%  
62 4% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.8% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.7%  
48 1.5% 99.1%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 95%  
51 8% 89% Majority
52 12% 82%  
53 15% 70%  
54 14% 55% Median
55 12% 40%  
56 14% 29%  
57 5% 15%  
58 4% 10%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.1% 2% Last Result
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.4%  
48 2% 98.5%  
49 4% 96%  
50 6% 92%  
51 10% 86% Majority
52 13% 76%  
53 14% 63% Median
54 13% 50%  
55 13% 36%  
56 10% 24% Last Result
57 6% 13%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 7% 88% Last Result
45 12% 81%  
46 13% 69%  
47 14% 56% Median
48 13% 42%  
49 9% 29%  
50 10% 19%  
51 4% 10% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.9% 99.5%  
39 1.4% 98.6%  
40 4% 97%  
41 6% 93%  
42 8% 87%  
43 10% 79%  
44 18% 69% Median
45 13% 51%  
46 12% 38% Last Result
47 10% 26%  
48 8% 16%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 3% 97%  
38 8% 94%  
39 9% 86%  
40 13% 78%  
41 13% 65% Median
42 11% 52%  
43 13% 40%  
44 12% 28%  
45 8% 16%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.4%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.6%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 5% 97%  
32 8% 92%  
33 12% 84%  
34 15% 72%  
35 13% 57% Median
36 12% 44%  
37 12% 32%  
38 11% 20%  
39 5% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.6% 1.0%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 0.4% 99.7%  
25 0.9% 99.3%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 8% 92%  
29 9% 84%  
30 18% 75%  
31 16% 57% Median
32 12% 41%  
33 12% 29%  
34 7% 17%  
35 6% 10%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.8%  
23 1.5% 99.4%  
24 4% 98%  
25 7% 94%  
26 12% 87%  
27 14% 75%  
28 18% 62% Median
29 14% 43% Last Result
30 13% 30%  
31 9% 17%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 3% 98.9%  
21 5% 96%  
22 10% 91%  
23 13% 81%  
24 22% 68%  
25 13% 47% Median
26 14% 34%  
27 9% 19%  
28 5% 10%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations