Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 13–19 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.5% 28.7–32.4% 28.2–33.0% 27.7–33.4% 26.9–34.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 27.7% 25.9–29.6% 25.4–30.1% 25.0–30.6% 24.2–31.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 31 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 7% 97%  
32 12% 91%  
33 13% 78%  
34 25% 65% Last Result, Median
35 19% 40%  
36 12% 21%  
37 6% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 8% 96%  
29 17% 87%  
30 20% 71%  
31 24% 51% Median
32 9% 26%  
33 12% 17%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.1% 1.5%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 7% 98%  
16 27% 90%  
17 24% 63% Median
18 23% 40%  
19 11% 16%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.1% 1.3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 9% 99.3%  
8 33% 90%  
9 36% 58% Median
10 17% 22%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 5% 98%  
5 43% 94%  
6 31% 51% Median
7 17% 20%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 16% 93%  
5 47% 77% Median
6 24% 31%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 82 100% 79–84 79–85 79–86 77–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 67–72 66–72 66–73 64–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 65 100% 62–67 61–68 61–69 59–70
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 87% 50–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 63% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 48 8% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.1% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–41 35–42 35–43 33–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 34–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 28 0% 25–30 24–31 23–31 22–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 18–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.6% 99.9%  
78 1.4% 99.3%  
79 10% 98% Last Result
80 16% 87%  
81 14% 71%  
82 22% 57% Median
83 23% 35%  
84 6% 12%  
85 3% 6%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 1.4% 99.4% Last Result
66 4% 98%  
67 9% 94%  
68 17% 85%  
69 16% 68%  
70 20% 52% Median
71 19% 32%  
72 9% 13%  
73 3% 4%  
74 1.0% 1.4%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.4%  
61 4% 98%  
62 13% 94%  
63 11% 81%  
64 18% 70%  
65 18% 52% Median
66 15% 34%  
67 12% 19%  
68 4% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.5%  
48 1.4% 98.8%  
49 4% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 17% 87% Majority
52 18% 70%  
53 19% 52% Median
54 18% 33%  
55 7% 15%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 2% Last Result
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 6% 97%  
49 12% 92%  
50 17% 79%  
51 19% 63% Median, Majority
52 18% 43%  
53 13% 25%  
54 6% 12%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.7%  
44 3% 98.7%  
45 9% 95% Last Result
46 12% 87%  
47 23% 74%  
48 19% 51% Median
49 16% 33%  
50 9% 17%  
51 4% 8% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.6% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.7% 99.6%  
40 2% 98.8%  
41 4% 96%  
42 7% 92%  
43 12% 85%  
44 20% 73%  
45 20% 53% Median
46 16% 32%  
47 9% 16%  
48 5% 7%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 99.2%  
36 3% 98%  
37 9% 95%  
38 11% 86%  
39 24% 75%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 18% 35%  
42 10% 17%  
43 4% 6%  
44 2% 3% Last Result
45 0.4% 0.8%  
46 0.4% 0.4%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.3%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 95%  
37 13% 88%  
38 11% 76%  
39 22% 64% Median
40 25% 42%  
41 9% 17%  
42 5% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.9% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.6%  
32 2% 99.0%  
33 5% 97%  
34 12% 92%  
35 15% 80%  
36 25% 66%  
37 18% 41% Median
38 10% 23%  
39 10% 13%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.0% 1.3%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 0.9% 99.5%  
23 2% 98.6%  
24 3% 96%  
25 8% 94%  
26 14% 86%  
27 20% 72%  
28 17% 53% Median
29 18% 36%  
30 9% 18%  
31 7% 9%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.8%  
18 0.5% 99.7%  
19 1.4% 99.3%  
20 4% 98%  
21 18% 94%  
22 23% 76%  
23 17% 53% Median
24 22% 36%  
25 9% 14%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations