Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–26 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.3% 26.5–30.2% 26.0–30.7% 25.6–31.2% 24.8–32.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.5–23.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 30 28–33 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.0% 99.8%  
28 3% 98.7%  
29 10% 96%  
30 17% 86%  
31 21% 69% Median
32 21% 48%  
33 12% 27%  
34 8% 15% Last Result
35 5% 7%  
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.7%  
27 6% 98%  
28 9% 93%  
29 19% 84%  
30 19% 65% Median
31 20% 46%  
32 12% 26%  
33 9% 14%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.8%  
18 6% 98.8%  
19 13% 92%  
20 19% 79%  
21 28% 60% Median
22 19% 32%  
23 9% 14%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 22% 95%  
8 39% 74% Median
9 24% 34%  
10 9% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 5% 97%  
5 35% 91%  
6 43% 56% Median
7 11% 13%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 12% 89%  
5 44% 77% Median
6 26% 33%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 82 100% 80–86 80–87 79–88 78–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 64–69 63–70 63–71 61–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 59–65 58–66 58–66 57–68
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 56 99.5% 53–58 52–59 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 81% 49–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 51 60% 49–54 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–44 38–45 37–46 35–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 34–40 34–40 33–41 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 30–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–40 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–33 27–34 26–35 24–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–29 23–29 22–30 20–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.5% 99.9%  
79 3% 99.4% Last Result
80 10% 96%  
81 20% 86%  
82 22% 67% Median
83 15% 45%  
84 14% 29%  
85 3% 15%  
86 5% 12%  
87 4% 7%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.1%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.9%  
62 1.4% 99.3%  
63 4% 98%  
64 9% 94%  
65 14% 85% Last Result
66 23% 71% Median
67 18% 48%  
68 13% 30%  
69 10% 17%  
70 4% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.6% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 1.1% 99.5%  
58 4% 98%  
59 7% 94%  
60 17% 87%  
61 18% 70% Median
62 18% 52%  
63 14% 34%  
64 8% 21%  
65 5% 13%  
66 5% 7%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.6% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 7% 94%  
54 12% 86%  
55 17% 75%  
56 16% 58% Median
57 20% 41% Last Result
58 12% 22%  
59 7% 10%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 3% 99.2%  
49 7% 96%  
50 9% 90%  
51 20% 81% Majority
52 13% 61% Median
53 19% 48%  
54 14% 28%  
55 8% 14%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100% Last Result
46 1.1% 99.8%  
47 3% 98.7%  
48 6% 96%  
49 13% 90%  
50 18% 78%  
51 18% 60% Median, Majority
52 14% 41%  
53 14% 27%  
54 7% 14%  
55 4% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 96%  
39 6% 92%  
40 13% 86%  
41 15% 72%  
42 20% 57% Median
43 18% 38%  
44 11% 20%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.1%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 1.0% 99.3%  
33 2% 98%  
34 6% 96%  
35 12% 90%  
36 19% 78%  
37 21% 59% Median
38 18% 38%  
39 9% 21%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.9% 1.3%  
43 0.4% 0.4%  
44 0% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 1.2% 99.2%  
32 4% 98%  
33 9% 94%  
34 11% 86%  
35 18% 75%  
36 19% 57% Median
37 19% 39%  
38 11% 20%  
39 5% 9%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 2% 98.9%  
32 3% 97%  
33 4% 94%  
34 9% 90%  
35 17% 80%  
36 17% 64% Median
37 19% 46%  
38 14% 28%  
39 7% 13%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.7% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 1.1% 99.5%  
26 2% 98%  
27 5% 96%  
28 5% 91%  
29 9% 87%  
30 13% 78%  
31 18% 65%  
32 19% 47% Median
33 18% 28%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.8%  
21 0.8% 99.1%  
22 2% 98%  
23 3% 97%  
24 8% 94%  
25 17% 85%  
26 20% 68%  
27 23% 48% Median
28 14% 25%  
29 8% 12%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.0%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations