Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–26 September 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
28.3% |
26.5–30.2% |
26.0–30.7% |
25.6–31.2% |
24.8–32.1% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
27.4% |
25.6–29.3% |
25.1–29.8% |
24.7–30.3% |
23.9–31.2% |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
19.6% |
18.1–21.3% |
17.6–21.8% |
17.3–22.2% |
16.5–23.0% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
8.7% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.3–10.3% |
7.1–10.6% |
6.6–11.2% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
6.3% |
5.4–7.4% |
5.2–7.7% |
5.0–8.0% |
4.6–8.5% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.5% |
4.2–8.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Erakond Parempoolsed |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
29 |
10% |
96% |
|
30 |
17% |
86% |
|
31 |
21% |
69% |
Median |
32 |
21% |
48% |
|
33 |
12% |
27% |
|
34 |
8% |
15% |
Last Result |
35 |
5% |
7% |
|
36 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
6% |
98% |
|
28 |
9% |
93% |
|
29 |
19% |
84% |
|
30 |
19% |
65% |
Median |
31 |
20% |
46% |
|
32 |
12% |
26% |
|
33 |
9% |
14% |
|
34 |
3% |
5% |
|
35 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
19 |
13% |
92% |
|
20 |
19% |
79% |
|
21 |
28% |
60% |
Median |
22 |
19% |
32% |
|
23 |
9% |
14% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
22% |
95% |
|
8 |
39% |
74% |
Median |
9 |
24% |
34% |
|
10 |
9% |
10% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
97% |
|
2 |
0% |
97% |
|
3 |
0% |
97% |
|
4 |
5% |
97% |
|
5 |
35% |
91% |
|
6 |
43% |
56% |
Median |
7 |
11% |
13% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
89% |
|
2 |
0% |
89% |
|
3 |
0% |
89% |
|
4 |
12% |
89% |
|
5 |
44% |
77% |
Median |
6 |
26% |
33% |
|
7 |
6% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
79 |
82 |
100% |
80–86 |
80–87 |
79–88 |
78–89 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
66 |
100% |
64–69 |
63–70 |
63–71 |
61–73 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
62 |
100% |
59–65 |
58–66 |
58–66 |
57–68 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
56 |
99.5% |
53–58 |
52–59 |
52–60 |
51–62 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
60 |
52 |
81% |
49–55 |
49–56 |
48–57 |
47–58 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
45 |
51 |
60% |
49–54 |
48–55 |
47–56 |
46–57 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
42 |
0% |
39–44 |
38–45 |
37–46 |
35–47 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
37 |
0% |
34–40 |
34–40 |
33–41 |
31–42 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
36 |
0% |
33–38 |
32–39 |
32–40 |
30–41 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
36 |
0% |
33–39 |
32–40 |
31–40 |
30–42 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
31 |
0% |
28–33 |
27–34 |
26–35 |
24–36 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
26 |
0% |
24–29 |
23–29 |
22–30 |
20–31 |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
78 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
79 |
3% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
80 |
10% |
96% |
|
81 |
20% |
86% |
|
82 |
22% |
67% |
Median |
83 |
15% |
45% |
|
84 |
14% |
29% |
|
85 |
3% |
15% |
|
86 |
5% |
12% |
|
87 |
4% |
7% |
|
88 |
2% |
3% |
|
89 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
1.4% |
99.3% |
|
63 |
4% |
98% |
|
64 |
9% |
94% |
|
65 |
14% |
85% |
Last Result |
66 |
23% |
71% |
Median |
67 |
18% |
48% |
|
68 |
13% |
30% |
|
69 |
10% |
17% |
|
70 |
4% |
7% |
|
71 |
2% |
3% |
|
72 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
73 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
58 |
4% |
98% |
|
59 |
7% |
94% |
|
60 |
17% |
87% |
|
61 |
18% |
70% |
Median |
62 |
18% |
52% |
|
63 |
14% |
34% |
|
64 |
8% |
21% |
|
65 |
5% |
13% |
|
66 |
5% |
7% |
|
67 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
68 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
2% |
99.5% |
Majority |
52 |
4% |
98% |
|
53 |
7% |
94% |
|
54 |
12% |
86% |
|
55 |
17% |
75% |
|
56 |
16% |
58% |
Median |
57 |
20% |
41% |
Last Result |
58 |
12% |
22% |
|
59 |
7% |
10% |
|
60 |
2% |
3% |
|
61 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
49 |
7% |
96% |
|
50 |
9% |
90% |
|
51 |
20% |
81% |
Majority |
52 |
13% |
61% |
Median |
53 |
19% |
48% |
|
54 |
14% |
28% |
|
55 |
8% |
14% |
|
56 |
3% |
7% |
|
57 |
2% |
3% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
46 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
47 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
48 |
6% |
96% |
|
49 |
13% |
90% |
|
50 |
18% |
78% |
|
51 |
18% |
60% |
Median, Majority |
52 |
14% |
41% |
|
53 |
14% |
27% |
|
54 |
7% |
14% |
|
55 |
4% |
6% |
|
56 |
2% |
3% |
|
57 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
37 |
2% |
98% |
|
38 |
5% |
96% |
|
39 |
6% |
92% |
|
40 |
13% |
86% |
|
41 |
15% |
72% |
|
42 |
20% |
57% |
Median |
43 |
18% |
38% |
|
44 |
11% |
20% |
|
45 |
5% |
8% |
|
46 |
2% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
33 |
2% |
98% |
|
34 |
6% |
96% |
|
35 |
12% |
90% |
|
36 |
19% |
78% |
|
37 |
21% |
59% |
Median |
38 |
18% |
38% |
|
39 |
9% |
21% |
|
40 |
7% |
11% |
|
41 |
3% |
4% |
|
42 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
44 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
30 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
32 |
4% |
98% |
|
33 |
9% |
94% |
|
34 |
11% |
86% |
|
35 |
18% |
75% |
|
36 |
19% |
57% |
Median |
37 |
19% |
39% |
|
38 |
11% |
20% |
|
39 |
5% |
9% |
|
40 |
3% |
4% |
|
41 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
32 |
3% |
97% |
|
33 |
4% |
94% |
|
34 |
9% |
90% |
|
35 |
17% |
80% |
|
36 |
17% |
64% |
Median |
37 |
19% |
46% |
|
38 |
14% |
28% |
|
39 |
7% |
13% |
|
40 |
4% |
6% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
2% |
98% |
|
27 |
5% |
96% |
|
28 |
5% |
91% |
|
29 |
9% |
87% |
|
30 |
13% |
78% |
|
31 |
18% |
65% |
|
32 |
19% |
47% |
Median |
33 |
18% |
28% |
|
34 |
6% |
10% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
2% |
98% |
|
23 |
3% |
97% |
|
24 |
8% |
94% |
|
25 |
17% |
85% |
|
26 |
20% |
68% |
|
27 |
23% |
48% |
Median |
28 |
14% |
25% |
|
29 |
8% |
12% |
|
30 |
3% |
4% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 20–26 September 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.75%