Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 September–3 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.5% 31.6–35.5% 31.1–36.0% 30.6–36.5% 29.8–37.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 27.8% 26.0–29.7% 25.5–30.2% 25.1–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–40 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 30 28–33 28–34 28–35 26–36
Eesti Keskerakond 26 12 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.8%  
34 2% 98.9% Last Result
35 6% 97%  
36 14% 90%  
37 15% 76%  
38 25% 61% Median
39 14% 36%  
40 12% 22%  
41 4% 10%  
42 4% 5%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 9% 98%  
29 14% 89%  
30 26% 75% Median
31 21% 48%  
32 12% 27%  
33 10% 15%  
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 10% 97%  
11 28% 88%  
12 31% 60% Median
13 19% 28%  
14 7% 9%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 6% 99.5%  
8 27% 94%  
9 38% 66% Median
10 20% 28%  
11 6% 8%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 6% 99.2%  
7 27% 93%  
8 48% 65% Median
9 15% 18%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 17% 77%  
5 41% 59% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 1.3% 1.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–84 77–85 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 76 100% 74–80 73–81 73–81 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 68 100% 66–72 65–73 65–73 64–75
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 42% 48–53 47–54 46–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 37% 47–52 46–53 46–54 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 50 36% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 1.4% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 38–45 38–45 37–46 36–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 32–37 31–38 30–39 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 24 0% 20–26 19–27 19–27 17–28
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 16 0% 12–18 11–19 11–19 10–20

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 1.3% 99.8%  
77 5% 98%  
78 13% 93%  
79 19% 80% Last Result
80 22% 61% Median
81 11% 40%  
82 10% 29%  
83 8% 19%  
84 6% 12%  
85 4% 6%  
86 1.1% 1.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 1.2% 99.5%  
73 5% 98%  
74 17% 93%  
75 19% 77%  
76 17% 57% Median
77 11% 40%  
78 9% 29%  
79 8% 20%  
80 5% 12%  
81 6% 8%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 1.1% 99.6%  
65 4% 98.5%  
66 12% 94%  
67 21% 82%  
68 15% 61% Median
69 13% 47%  
70 13% 34%  
71 7% 20%  
72 8% 13%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 3% 99.1%  
47 6% 96%  
48 11% 90%  
49 21% 80%  
50 16% 59% Median
51 14% 42% Majority
52 12% 28%  
53 8% 16%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.4% 99.6%  
46 4% 98%  
47 7% 94%  
48 13% 87%  
49 18% 74%  
50 18% 55% Median
51 18% 37% Majority
52 11% 20%  
53 4% 9%  
54 3% 5%  
55 0.8% 1.3%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.7%  
45 3% 98.6%  
46 5% 96%  
47 8% 91%  
48 9% 83%  
49 20% 73%  
50 17% 53%  
51 16% 36% Median, Majority
52 11% 20%  
53 6% 8%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.6%  
42 4% 98.6%  
43 6% 95%  
44 19% 89%  
45 15% 70%  
46 21% 55% Last Result, Median
47 15% 34%  
48 10% 19%  
49 6% 9%  
50 3% 4%  
51 1.0% 1.4% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.6%  
39 4% 98%  
40 12% 94%  
41 14% 82%  
42 20% 68% Median
43 20% 48%  
44 12% 27%  
45 7% 15% Last Result
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 7% 97%  
39 7% 90%  
40 9% 82%  
41 13% 73%  
42 20% 60%  
43 15% 40% Median
44 15% 25% Last Result
45 5% 10%  
46 4% 5%  
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
30 3% 98.8%  
31 5% 95%  
32 8% 91%  
33 12% 82%  
34 19% 70%  
35 20% 51% Median
36 16% 32%  
37 9% 15%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.1%  
19 4% 98%  
20 7% 95%  
21 10% 87%  
22 7% 77%  
23 17% 71%  
24 15% 54%  
25 19% 39% Median
26 13% 19%  
27 5% 6%  
28 0.9% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.8%  
11 6% 98.9%  
12 8% 93%  
13 6% 85%  
14 5% 79%  
15 12% 74%  
16 18% 62%  
17 23% 45% Median
18 15% 22%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations