Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–10 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.2% 30.3–34.1% 29.8–34.7% 29.4–35.2% 28.5–36.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 30 28–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 11–17
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–6 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.5%  
33 6% 98%  
34 8% 93% Last Result
35 20% 85%  
36 22% 65% Median
37 19% 43%  
38 14% 24%  
39 5% 10%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.8% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 6% 97%  
28 15% 91%  
29 20% 76%  
30 22% 56% Median
31 18% 33%  
32 9% 15%  
33 5% 6%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 9% 98%  
13 24% 89%  
14 32% 65% Median
15 21% 33%  
16 9% 12%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.2% 100%  
7 10% 98.8%  
8 47% 89% Median
9 20% 42%  
10 18% 22%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 22% 97%  
7 42% 75% Median
8 26% 33%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 5% 96%  
5 44% 91% Median
6 38% 47%  
7 8% 9%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 77–83 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 71 100% 69–73 68–74 68–75 67–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 66 100% 64–68 63–69 62–71 61–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 43% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 23% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 19% 46–51 45–52 45–52 43–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0.1% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–46 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 36–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 27 0% 24–29 23–29 22–30 20–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.3% 100%  
76 1.4% 99.7%  
77 4% 98%  
78 10% 95%  
79 22% 85% Last Result
80 32% 63% Median
81 19% 31%  
82 6% 12%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.4% 4%  
85 2% 3%  
86 1.1% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Last Result
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.6%  
68 4% 98.7%  
69 9% 95%  
70 16% 86%  
71 27% 70% Median
72 19% 43%  
73 15% 24%  
74 7% 10%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 5% 97%  
64 10% 92%  
65 19% 81%  
66 28% 62% Median
67 19% 35%  
68 8% 16%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 5% 98%  
48 10% 93%  
49 19% 83%  
50 21% 64% Median
51 19% 43% Majority
52 13% 24%  
53 7% 11%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.8% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.7%  
46 5% 96%  
47 11% 91%  
48 17% 79%  
49 20% 63% Median
50 19% 42%  
51 13% 23% Majority
52 7% 11%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.9% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.4%  
45 4% 98%  
46 8% 94%  
47 14% 86%  
48 18% 72% Median
49 20% 54%  
50 16% 34%  
51 12% 19% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.9% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.8%  
41 7% 96%  
42 16% 89%  
43 17% 73%  
44 20% 55% Median
45 17% 35% Last Result
46 10% 18%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.4% 99.5%  
40 5% 98%  
41 9% 93%  
42 18% 84%  
43 19% 66% Median
44 20% 47% Last Result
45 15% 27%  
46 7% 12%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 1.3% 99.4%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 94%  
40 15% 86%  
41 21% 71% Median
42 18% 50%  
43 16% 32%  
44 10% 16%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.4% 2% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.2%  
34 6% 97%  
35 12% 90%  
36 20% 78%  
37 19% 58% Median
38 21% 38%  
39 9% 17%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 1.2% 99.3%  
22 1.5% 98%  
23 2% 97%  
24 5% 94%  
25 15% 89%  
26 23% 74% Median
27 25% 51%  
28 16% 26%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 10% 96%  
20 21% 86%  
21 24% 65% Median
22 23% 41%  
23 12% 18%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations