Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 12 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.0% 26.7–31.5% 26.1–32.2% 25.5–32.8% 24.4–34.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 28.0% 25.7–30.4% 25.1–31.1% 24.6–31.7% 23.5–32.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 12.0% 10.4–13.9% 10.0–14.4% 9.6–14.9% 8.9–15.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.0% 10.4–13.9% 10.0–14.4% 9.6–14.9% 8.9–15.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.5–11.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 29–35 29–36 28–37 27–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 31 28–34 28–35 27–36 25–37
Eesti Keskerakond 26 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–16
Eesti 200 0 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 8–16
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 0–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.2% 99.6%  
28 3% 98%  
29 6% 95%  
30 10% 90%  
31 16% 79%  
32 18% 63% Median
33 20% 46%  
34 12% 26% Last Result
35 7% 14%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 1.3%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.2% 99.5%  
27 3% 98%  
28 7% 95%  
29 11% 88%  
30 17% 77%  
31 19% 60% Median
32 13% 41%  
33 16% 28%  
34 6% 12%  
35 3% 6%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.8%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.9%  
9 4% 99.3%  
10 11% 95%  
11 25% 85%  
12 23% 60% Median
13 21% 37%  
14 10% 15%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.9% 1.2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.6% 100%  
9 4% 99.3%  
10 13% 95%  
11 23% 82%  
12 26% 59% Median
13 18% 33%  
14 10% 15%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.7%  
6 17% 96%  
7 34% 79% Median
8 26% 45%  
9 15% 19%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 2% 98%  
5 15% 97%  
6 39% 81% Median
7 28% 42%  
8 10% 14%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 73–78 72–79 71–80 70–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 71 100% 68–74 67–75 66–76 65–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 61–66 60–67 59–68 57–70
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 50% 48–53 46–54 46–55 44–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 46 3% 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0.9% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0.1% 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–44 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 32–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 26 0% 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 18 0% 16–21 15–21 14–22 12–23

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.9% 99.6%  
71 3% 98.6%  
72 5% 96%  
73 12% 91%  
74 14% 79%  
75 20% 65% Median
76 15% 45%  
77 15% 30%  
78 8% 15%  
79 4% 7% Last Result
80 2% 3%  
81 0.9% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
66 2% 99.1%  
67 4% 97%  
68 7% 93%  
69 13% 86%  
70 23% 74% Median
71 17% 51%  
72 10% 34%  
73 12% 23%  
74 6% 11%  
75 3% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 1.3% 99.4%  
59 2% 98%  
60 5% 96%  
61 15% 90%  
62 9% 75%  
63 19% 66% Median
64 18% 47%  
65 12% 29%  
66 9% 17%  
67 4% 9%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.2%  
46 3% 98%  
47 4% 95%  
48 8% 91%  
49 17% 82%  
50 16% 66% Median
51 16% 50% Majority
52 13% 34%  
53 12% 21%  
54 4% 9%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 5% 97%  
43 6% 93%  
44 15% 87%  
45 13% 72% Median
46 16% 58%  
47 15% 42%  
48 14% 27%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 1.0% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 4% 97%  
41 7% 93%  
42 10% 86%  
43 8% 76%  
44 19% 68% Median
45 24% 49%  
46 13% 25%  
47 6% 12%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.5% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.7% 0.9% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 4% 97%  
40 6% 93%  
41 11% 86%  
42 21% 76%  
43 10% 55% Median
44 17% 45%  
45 10% 28% Last Result
46 11% 18%  
47 4% 7%  
48 1.4% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 5% 97%  
37 8% 91%  
38 18% 84%  
39 10% 65% Median
40 22% 56%  
41 12% 34%  
42 12% 22%  
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 6%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.3% 99.3%  
34 2% 98%  
35 4% 96%  
36 7% 92%  
37 15% 84%  
38 17% 70% Median
39 23% 53%  
40 13% 30%  
41 6% 16%  
42 6% 10%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2% Last Result
45 0.7% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 3% 97%  
34 5% 95%  
35 7% 90%  
36 18% 83%  
37 16% 65% Median
38 15% 48%  
39 15% 33%  
40 10% 18%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 3% 97%  
23 6% 94%  
24 11% 88%  
25 24% 77% Median
26 21% 53%  
27 13% 32%  
28 11% 20%  
29 4% 8%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.0% 1.3%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 0.4% 99.6%  
13 0.5% 99.2%  
14 1.3% 98.7%  
15 4% 97%  
16 9% 94%  
17 15% 85%  
18 25% 70% Median
19 21% 44%  
20 12% 24%  
21 7% 11%  
22 3% 4%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations