Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–17 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.2% 30.3–34.1% 29.8–34.7% 29.4–35.2% 28.5–36.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 28.8% 27.0–30.7% 26.5–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.2–32.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 32 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond 26 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 5% 97%  
34 17% 92% Last Result
35 23% 75%  
36 15% 52% Median
37 16% 38%  
38 14% 21%  
39 5% 7%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 8% 97%  
30 14% 89%  
31 20% 75%  
32 32% 55% Median
33 7% 22%  
34 9% 16%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 6% 99.4%  
10 17% 93%  
11 38% 76% Median
12 25% 39%  
13 11% 14%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 19% 98%  
8 36% 80% Median
9 29% 44%  
10 13% 15%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 21% 97%  
8 34% 77% Median
9 31% 43%  
10 10% 12%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 6% 97%  
5 32% 91%  
6 43% 59% Median
7 15% 16%  
8 1.4% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 79 100% 77–81 76–82 76–82 75–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 76 100% 73–78 73–79 72–80 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 67 100% 65–70 64–71 64–71 63–73
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 58% 49–53 49–54 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 50 34% 47–52 47–53 46–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 5% 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.1% 42–47 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 39–44 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 35–40 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–28 19–29
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 17 0% 15–19 14–19 13–20 11–21

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.6%  
76 6% 98%  
77 16% 91%  
78 21% 76%  
79 25% 55% Last Result, Median
80 17% 30%  
81 7% 13%  
82 3% 5%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.3%  
85 0.5% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.5%  
73 8% 97%  
74 12% 89%  
75 21% 78%  
76 26% 57% Median
77 16% 31%  
78 10% 15%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.4%  
82 0.5% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.3% 100%  
63 2% 99.7%  
64 4% 98%  
65 8% 94%  
66 14% 87%  
67 24% 73%  
68 23% 49% Median
69 13% 25%  
70 6% 12%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.9% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 2% 97%  
49 12% 95%  
50 25% 83%  
51 11% 58% Median, Majority
52 24% 47%  
53 14% 23%  
54 3% 8%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.5%  
46 3% 98%  
47 10% 95%  
48 11% 85%  
49 19% 75%  
50 22% 56% Median
51 14% 34% Majority
52 11% 19%  
53 6% 8%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 5% 98%  
45 16% 93%  
46 19% 77%  
47 16% 58% Median
48 16% 42%  
49 13% 26%  
50 8% 13%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 0.9% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 7% 98%  
42 12% 91%  
43 17% 79%  
44 20% 62% Median
45 18% 42%  
46 11% 24% Last Result
47 8% 13%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.0% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 5% 97%  
41 15% 92%  
42 19% 77%  
43 27% 58% Median
44 13% 31%  
45 8% 18% Last Result
46 7% 10%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 3% 97%  
39 6% 94%  
40 25% 88%  
41 16% 63%  
42 16% 47% Median
43 15% 31%  
44 12% 16% Last Result
45 2% 4%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 5% 97%  
35 10% 92%  
36 15% 82%  
37 21% 67%  
38 27% 46% Median
39 6% 19%  
40 8% 13%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.7% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.4%  
21 1.3% 98.7%  
22 4% 97%  
23 7% 93%  
24 21% 87%  
25 20% 66% Median
26 29% 46%  
27 10% 17%  
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.8%  
12 0.8% 99.0%  
13 0.9% 98%  
14 3% 97%  
15 12% 95%  
16 21% 83%  
17 29% 62% Median
18 20% 33%  
19 9% 12%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations