Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 13–19 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.2% 26.7–29.7% 26.3–30.2% 25.9–30.5% 25.2–31.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.2% 23.8–26.7% 23.4–27.1% 23.0–27.5% 22.4–28.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.1% 13.0–15.3% 12.7–15.7% 12.4–16.0% 11.9–16.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.1% 13.0–15.3% 12.7–15.7% 12.4–16.0% 11.9–16.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.5% 5.5–9.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–33 29–34 29–34 28–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 13% 98%  
30 17% 85%  
31 28% 68% Median
32 25% 40%  
33 10% 15%  
34 4% 5% Last Result
35 1.3% 1.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.9%  
25 5% 98%  
26 17% 94%  
27 24% 77%  
28 28% 53% Median
29 16% 25%  
30 8% 9%  
31 1.2% 1.4%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.7%  
13 15% 96%  
14 45% 81% Median
15 24% 36%  
16 9% 12%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 4% 99.7%  
13 16% 96%  
14 42% 80% Median
15 26% 38%  
16 10% 12%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 14% 99.7%  
7 42% 86% Median
8 37% 44%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 55% 93% Median
7 30% 38%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 71–75 70–75 69–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 63–67 63–67 62–68 61–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 57–61 56–61 56–62 55–63
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 5% 46–50 46–50 45–51 44–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 45 0.1% 43–47 43–48 42–48 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0% 43–47 43–47 42–48 41–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–44 39–44 39–44 38–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 37–40 36–41 36–42 35–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 35–39 35–40 35–41 34–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 33–37 32–37 32–38 31–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 28 0% 26–30 26–30 25–31 25–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 19–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 1.1% 99.9%  
70 3% 98.9%  
71 9% 96%  
72 27% 87%  
73 23% 60% Median
74 20% 37%  
75 15% 17%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.8% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.1%  
63 10% 96%  
64 20% 86%  
65 24% 65% Last Result, Median
66 24% 41%  
67 14% 17%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.8% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.4% 100%  
55 2% 99.6%  
56 6% 98%  
57 13% 92%  
58 23% 79%  
59 27% 56% Median
60 16% 29%  
61 10% 13%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.5% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 4% 99.2%  
46 8% 95%  
47 21% 88%  
48 23% 67% Median
49 21% 44%  
50 19% 23%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.3% 1.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.5%  
43 9% 97%  
44 13% 88%  
45 28% 75% Median
46 26% 47%  
47 10% 20%  
48 7% 10%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.1%  
43 17% 96%  
44 18% 79% Median
45 28% 61%  
46 20% 33%  
47 8% 13%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 6% 98.5%  
40 11% 93%  
41 21% 82%  
42 28% 61% Median
43 17% 32%  
44 13% 16%  
45 2% 2% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.3% 99.8%  
36 7% 98.5%  
37 20% 92%  
38 21% 72% Median
39 28% 52%  
40 15% 23%  
41 6% 9%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.7%  
35 10% 98%  
36 11% 89%  
37 29% 77% Median
38 21% 48%  
39 19% 27%  
40 6% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.9% 99.9%  
32 6% 99.0%  
33 8% 93%  
34 21% 85%  
35 28% 64% Median
36 22% 36%  
37 11% 14%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.7%  
26 8% 96%  
27 25% 88% Median
28 30% 63%  
29 18% 33%  
30 10% 15%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 3% 99.6%  
20 14% 96%  
21 29% 82% Median
22 30% 53%  
23 17% 24%  
24 6% 7%  
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations