Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–25 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.2% 32.3–36.2% 31.8–36.7% 31.3–37.2% 30.4–38.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.7% 12.6–18.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 13–17 13–18 12–19
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5% Last Result
35 6% 98%  
36 12% 92%  
37 19% 80%  
38 16% 62% Median
39 24% 45%  
40 11% 22%  
41 6% 11%  
42 4% 5%  
43 0.6% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.0%  
26 10% 96%  
27 17% 86%  
28 21% 70% Median
29 24% 48%  
30 13% 24%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 7% 99.2%  
14 13% 92%  
15 47% 79% Median
16 17% 33%  
17 13% 16%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 6% 99.8%  
7 29% 94%  
8 38% 65% Median
9 22% 27%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 3% 99.5%  
5 22% 97%  
6 44% 75% Median
7 27% 30%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 6% 96%  
5 46% 90% Median
6 36% 44%  
7 8% 8%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 82 100% 80–84 79–85 79–86 78–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 73 100% 70–75 70–76 69–76 68–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 67 100% 64–69 63–70 63–71 62–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 94% 51–56 50–57 50–57 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 33% 47–52 47–53 46–53 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 50 30% 47–52 46–53 46–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.1% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0.1% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 31–36 30–36 30–37 28–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 24–29 23–29 22–30 20–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 18–22 18–23 16–24 14–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.9% 99.8%  
79 4% 99.0% Last Result
80 15% 95%  
81 23% 80% Median
82 30% 56%  
83 16% 26%  
84 5% 10%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.4% 3%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.7% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.9% 99.8%  
69 3% 98.9%  
70 8% 96%  
71 15% 88%  
72 21% 73% Median
73 26% 52%  
74 14% 26%  
75 7% 13%  
76 4% 6%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.9% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.7%  
63 4% 98.9%  
64 8% 95%  
65 17% 87%  
66 19% 70% Median
67 23% 51%  
68 14% 27%  
69 7% 14%  
70 3% 6%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.9% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.6%  
50 4% 98%  
51 12% 94% Majority
52 14% 82%  
53 17% 68% Median
54 26% 50%  
55 11% 25%  
56 6% 13%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 4% 99.1%  
47 6% 96%  
48 17% 89%  
49 20% 72% Median
50 19% 52%  
51 16% 33% Majority
52 11% 17%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 5% 98%  
47 8% 92%  
48 15% 84%  
49 17% 69% Median
50 22% 53%  
51 17% 30% Majority
52 7% 13%  
53 5% 6%  
54 0.8% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 5% 97%  
42 11% 92%  
43 15% 81%  
44 24% 66% Median
45 17% 42%  
46 14% 25% Last Result
47 5% 10%  
48 4% 5%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 7% 97%  
42 17% 90%  
43 21% 73% Median
44 23% 51%  
45 13% 28% Last Result
46 9% 15%  
47 3% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 1.4% 99.3%  
40 6% 98%  
41 11% 92%  
42 15% 81%  
43 15% 67% Median
44 20% 52% Last Result
45 18% 32%  
46 9% 14%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.8%  
29 1.2% 99.1% Last Result
30 4% 98%  
31 7% 94%  
32 12% 87%  
33 19% 75% Median
34 23% 56%  
35 17% 33%  
36 11% 16%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.5% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.4%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 2% 97%  
24 6% 94%  
25 10% 88%  
26 21% 78% Median
27 31% 57%  
28 16% 26%  
29 6% 10%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.3%  
16 2% 98.7%  
17 1.5% 97%  
18 6% 96%  
19 10% 90%  
20 29% 80% Median
21 27% 52%  
22 15% 24%  
23 7% 10%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations