Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26–31 October 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.5% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 32–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 31 29–33 28–33 27–34 27–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–18
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 4% 98.7%  
32 8% 95%  
33 18% 87%  
34 20% 70% Last Result, Median
35 24% 50%  
36 12% 26%  
37 9% 14%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.1% 1.3%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 6% 97%  
29 15% 91%  
30 18% 76%  
31 23% 58% Median
32 20% 34%  
33 9% 14%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.1% 1.4%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 27% 89%  
15 27% 62% Median
16 21% 35%  
17 11% 14%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 16% 98%  
8 37% 82% Median
9 31% 45%  
10 11% 14%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.9% 99.7%  
5 20% 98.8%  
6 37% 79% Median
7 34% 42%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 1.2% 99.7%  
5 21% 98.5%  
6 51% 78% Median
7 21% 27%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 78–83 77–83 76–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 72 100% 69–74 69–74 68–75 67–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 65 100% 63–67 62–68 62–69 61–70
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 80% 50–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 30% 47–52 46–53 46–53 45–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 47 3% 44–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 46 0.4% 44–48 43–49 42–50 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.9%  
77 3% 99.1%  
78 9% 96%  
79 20% 87% Last Result
80 22% 68% Median
81 26% 45%  
82 13% 19%  
83 4% 6%  
84 1.0% 1.5%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0.2% 100%  
67 1.0% 99.8%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 8% 96%  
70 15% 88%  
71 23% 73% Median
72 23% 50%  
73 17% 27%  
74 7% 10%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.5%  
62 5% 98%  
63 10% 93%  
64 17% 83%  
65 22% 66% Median
66 20% 45%  
67 16% 24%  
68 6% 8%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 6% 97%  
50 11% 91%  
51 18% 80% Majority
52 20% 62% Median
53 21% 42%  
54 12% 20%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.4% 99.6%  
46 3% 98%  
47 10% 95%  
48 17% 85%  
49 18% 68% Median
50 19% 50%  
51 16% 30% Majority
52 9% 14%  
53 4% 6%  
54 1.0% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.2%  
44 9% 96%  
45 7% 86%  
46 16% 80% Median
47 32% 64%  
48 17% 31%  
49 7% 14%  
50 4% 7%  
51 3% 3% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.0% 99.8%  
42 4% 98.8%  
43 5% 95%  
44 12% 90%  
45 22% 79% Last Result
46 28% 57% Median
47 11% 29%  
48 9% 17%  
49 6% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 7% 95%  
39 10% 88%  
40 23% 78% Median
41 25% 56%  
42 15% 31%  
43 10% 16%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.7%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 9% 96%  
39 13% 86%  
40 21% 73% Median
41 24% 52%  
42 13% 28%  
43 9% 14%  
44 4% 5% Last Result
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 8% 97%  
35 13% 89%  
36 18% 76%  
37 20% 58% Median
38 19% 38%  
39 13% 19%  
40 5% 7%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.1%  
25 7% 97%  
26 21% 90%  
27 23% 69% Median
28 22% 45%  
29 13% 23%  
30 7% 10%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.5% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.3%  
19 8% 97%  
20 26% 89%  
21 26% 63% Median
22 21% 37%  
23 10% 16%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.0% 1.4%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations