Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–6 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.5% 31.6–35.5% 31.1–36.0% 30.6–36.5% 29.8–37.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.7% 24.0–27.5% 23.5–28.1% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0% Last Result
35 6% 96%  
36 9% 90%  
37 21% 81%  
38 18% 61% Median
39 14% 42%  
40 16% 28%  
41 6% 12%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 4% 98.7%  
26 10% 94%  
27 18% 84%  
28 22% 66% Median
29 17% 44%  
30 13% 28%  
31 9% 15%  
32 5% 6%  
33 1.1% 1.4%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 6% 99.0%  
14 13% 93%  
15 29% 80%  
16 29% 51% Median
17 13% 22%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 17% 98%  
8 36% 81% Median
9 31% 44%  
10 11% 13%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 7% 99.5%  
7 29% 92%  
8 40% 64% Median
9 18% 24%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 13% 54% Median
5 33% 41%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 82 100% 79–85 78–86 78–86 77–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 75 100% 72–78 71–79 71–79 69–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 67 100% 63–70 63–70 62–71 60–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 92% 51–57 50–58 49–58 48–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 76% 49–56 48–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 49 35% 46–52 45–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 5% 44–49 43–51 43–51 41–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0.1% 41–47 41–48 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 37–44 37–45 36–45 35–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 28–34 27–35 26–35 25–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 23–30 23–30 22–31 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 18 0% 15–21 14–22 14–22 13–23

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 1.4% 99.6%  
78 4% 98%  
79 15% 94% Last Result
80 9% 79%  
81 12% 70%  
82 11% 58% Median
83 14% 47%  
84 11% 34%  
85 17% 23%  
86 3% 5%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.4%  
71 6% 98%  
72 11% 92%  
73 12% 81%  
74 16% 70% Median
75 9% 54%  
76 14% 44%  
77 13% 30%  
78 12% 18%  
79 4% 6%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 3% 98.7%  
63 7% 96%  
64 11% 88%  
65 13% 78%  
66 14% 65% Median
67 16% 51%  
68 8% 36%  
69 17% 28%  
70 7% 11%  
71 3% 4%  
72 1.0% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 3% 99.2%  
50 4% 97%  
51 8% 92% Majority
52 14% 85%  
53 18% 71%  
54 16% 52% Median
55 13% 36%  
56 13% 24%  
57 6% 11%  
58 4% 5%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 4% 98.9%  
49 5% 95%  
50 14% 90%  
51 17% 76% Majority
52 13% 58% Median
53 15% 46%  
54 11% 31%  
55 7% 20%  
56 10% 13%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.8% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 5% 98%  
46 7% 93%  
47 11% 86%  
48 11% 75%  
49 20% 64%  
50 9% 44% Median
51 18% 35% Majority
52 9% 16%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.0%  
43 4% 98%  
44 11% 94%  
45 14% 83%  
46 21% 69% Last Result, Median
47 17% 48%  
48 11% 31%  
49 11% 20%  
50 4% 9%  
51 4% 5% Majority
52 0.7% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.3% 99.6%  
40 3% 98%  
41 8% 95%  
42 17% 87%  
43 15% 70%  
44 16% 56% Median
45 16% 40% Last Result
46 9% 24%  
47 8% 15%  
48 6% 7%  
49 0.7% 1.1%  
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 8% 97%  
38 9% 88%  
39 9% 80%  
40 17% 70%  
41 11% 54%  
42 14% 42% Median
43 12% 28%  
44 9% 16% Last Result
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 6% 97%  
28 8% 91%  
29 11% 84% Last Result
30 14% 72%  
31 12% 59%  
32 17% 47% Median
33 16% 30%  
34 8% 14%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.7% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 7% 96%  
24 11% 89%  
25 14% 77%  
26 11% 63%  
27 13% 52%  
28 17% 40% Median
29 11% 23%  
30 8% 12%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.3% 99.9%  
14 4% 98.6%  
15 11% 95%  
16 16% 84%  
17 10% 68%  
18 11% 59%  
19 9% 48%  
20 20% 39% Median
21 11% 19%  
22 6% 8%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations