Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 9 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.0% 29.6–34.5% 29.0–35.2% 28.4–35.8% 27.3–37.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.0% 21.9–26.3% 21.3–27.0% 20.7–27.6% 19.8–28.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.0% 10.4–13.9% 10.0–14.4% 9.6–14.9% 8.9–15.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 11.0% 9.5–12.8% 9.1–13.3% 8.7–13.8% 8.1–14.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 7.0–11.6% 6.4–12.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8% 4.4–8.2% 3.9–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5% 0.9–4.0%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 27 24–30 23–31 23–31 21–33
Eesti 200 0 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–17
Eesti Keskerakond 26 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 8–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–11 7–11 6–12 6–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–7 0–7 0–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93% Last Result
35 14% 86%  
36 15% 72%  
37 17% 57% Median
38 15% 40%  
39 9% 25%  
40 8% 16%  
41 3% 7%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.8% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 5% 98%  
24 8% 93%  
25 13% 85%  
26 17% 72%  
27 15% 56% Median
28 20% 40%  
29 8% 21%  
30 7% 13%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 10% 97%  
11 23% 87%  
12 22% 65% Median
13 20% 42%  
14 14% 22%  
15 6% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 3% 99.6%  
9 10% 96%  
10 22% 86%  
11 26% 65% Median
12 21% 39%  
13 11% 18%  
14 4% 6%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 3% 99.7%  
7 13% 97%  
8 30% 84%  
9 26% 54% Median
10 17% 28% Last Result
11 8% 11%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 6% 87%  
5 33% 81% Median
6 31% 47%  
7 13% 16%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 72–78 71–79 70–80 69–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 66–72 65–72 64–73 62–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 64 100% 60–67 60–68 59–70 57–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 56% 48–54 46–55 45–56 43–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 19% 45–51 44–52 43–53 42–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 4% 43–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0.1% 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 39–45 38–46 36–47 35–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–43 32–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 25 0% 22–28 20–29 19–30 18–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 20 0% 17–22 17–23 16–24 15–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.8% 99.7%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 6% 97%  
72 7% 91%  
73 12% 84%  
74 18% 72%  
75 14% 54% Median
76 17% 41%  
77 9% 24%  
78 6% 15%  
79 4% 9% Last Result
80 2% 5%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.9% 99.5%  
64 2% 98.5%  
65 5% 96% Last Result
66 9% 92%  
67 9% 82%  
68 18% 73%  
69 16% 55% Median
70 12% 39%  
71 14% 27%  
72 8% 13%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.4%  
59 3% 98%  
60 6% 95%  
61 10% 90%  
62 10% 80%  
63 16% 70%  
64 15% 55% Median
65 14% 39%  
66 11% 26%  
67 6% 14%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.5%  
45 1.3% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 4% 94%  
48 10% 91%  
49 11% 81%  
50 13% 69%  
51 17% 56% Median, Majority
52 16% 39%  
53 9% 23%  
54 6% 14%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3% Last Result
57 0.8% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.6%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 5% 97%  
45 9% 92%  
46 9% 83%  
47 15% 75%  
48 20% 60% Median
49 10% 40%  
50 11% 30%  
51 11% 19% Majority
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 1.1% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 9% 91%  
44 13% 82% Last Result
45 18% 69%  
46 14% 51% Median
47 12% 36%  
48 9% 24%  
49 7% 15%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.9%  
38 3% 97%  
39 5% 95%  
40 9% 89%  
41 8% 80%  
42 15% 72%  
43 12% 58% Median
44 15% 46%  
45 16% 31%  
46 6% 15%  
47 5% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 1.0% 1.5%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 1.2% 99.6%  
36 2% 98%  
37 2% 97%  
38 5% 95%  
39 7% 90%  
40 11% 84%  
41 12% 72%  
42 17% 60% Median
43 17% 43%  
44 10% 26%  
45 7% 16%  
46 4% 8% Last Result
47 3% 4%  
48 0.9% 1.5%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 4% 96%  
35 9% 92%  
36 10% 83%  
37 15% 73%  
38 14% 58% Median
39 20% 44%  
40 10% 24%  
41 6% 14%  
42 4% 8%  
43 2% 4%  
44 0.7% 2%  
45 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
30 0.8% 99.6%  
31 4% 98.8%  
32 5% 95%  
33 9% 90%  
34 14% 81%  
35 13% 67%  
36 21% 55% Median
37 12% 34%  
38 10% 22%  
39 5% 12%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.5% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.3% 99.5%  
19 2% 98%  
20 2% 96%  
21 4% 94%  
22 6% 90%  
23 9% 85%  
24 16% 76%  
25 20% 60% Median
26 14% 40%  
27 12% 26%  
28 9% 14%  
29 3% 5%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.2%  
17 7% 96%  
18 13% 90%  
19 20% 77%  
20 20% 57% Median
21 16% 36%  
22 11% 20%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.0% 1.3%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations