Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–14 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.3–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.8% 15.4–18.4% 15.0–18.9% 14.6–19.3% 13.9–20.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–40 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.2% Last Result
35 8% 97%  
36 16% 88%  
37 20% 73%  
38 14% 53% Median
39 22% 39%  
40 8% 16%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.3%  
23 8% 96%  
24 20% 88%  
25 20% 68% Median
26 24% 49%  
27 13% 24%  
28 8% 11%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 8% 98%  
16 20% 90%  
17 25% 70% Median
18 24% 45%  
19 15% 20%  
20 4% 5%  
21 1.0% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.4% 100%  
7 14% 98.5%  
8 34% 85%  
9 30% 51% Median
10 18% 21%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 17% 98%  
7 44% 81% Median
8 29% 37%  
9 7% 9%  
10 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 12% 90%  
5 52% 78% Median
6 22% 26%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–83 78–84 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 68 100% 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 60–66 60–67 60–68 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 99.2% 52–58 52–59 51–59 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 36% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 6% 45–50 44–51 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.7% 42–48 42–48 41–49 40–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 27–32 25–32 24–33 23–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 22–27 22–27 22–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.8% 99.9%  
77 2% 99.1%  
78 11% 97%  
79 16% 86% Last Result
80 24% 69% Median
81 24% 46%  
82 10% 22%  
83 3% 12%  
84 4% 8%  
85 3% 5%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.2%  
65 8% 97% Last Result
66 11% 89%  
67 18% 78%  
68 21% 60% Median
69 22% 39%  
70 11% 17%  
71 5% 6%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.4%  
60 8% 98%  
61 11% 90%  
62 15% 79%  
63 21% 63% Median
64 20% 42%  
65 10% 22%  
66 5% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.2% Majority
52 7% 97%  
53 14% 90%  
54 14% 76%  
55 25% 63% Median
56 15% 38%  
57 10% 22%  
58 7% 12%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.5% 2% Last Result
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.3%  
46 4% 98%  
47 7% 94%  
48 15% 87%  
49 19% 72%  
50 18% 54% Median
51 15% 36% Majority
52 14% 21%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.4%  
43 2% 98%  
44 6% 96%  
45 7% 91%  
46 16% 83%  
47 20% 68% Median
48 15% 48%  
49 19% 33%  
50 7% 14%  
51 5% 6% Majority
52 1.1% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.3%  
42 7% 96%  
43 11% 89%  
44 21% 78% Last Result
45 15% 57% Median
46 18% 42%  
47 12% 24%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 2% 99.7%  
39 3% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 16% 88%  
42 20% 72% Median
43 17% 52%  
44 18% 35%  
45 10% 17% Last Result
46 5% 7%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.7%  
38 1.2% 99.0%  
39 6% 98%  
40 6% 92%  
41 17% 86%  
42 21% 69%  
43 15% 48% Median
44 19% 33%  
45 9% 14%  
46 4% 6% Last Result
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.1% Last Result
30 7% 97%  
31 15% 89%  
32 20% 75% Median
33 26% 55%  
34 14% 29%  
35 8% 14%  
36 5% 7%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.8%  
24 1.1% 98.5%  
25 3% 97%  
26 4% 95%  
27 8% 90%  
28 13% 82%  
29 19% 69% Median
30 24% 50%  
31 15% 27%  
32 9% 12%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 8% 98%  
23 17% 89%  
24 17% 72% Median
25 31% 55%  
26 12% 24%  
27 8% 12%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations