Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–17 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.0% 29.5–32.5% 29.0–33.0% 28.7–33.3% 28.0–34.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.6–23.4% 20.3–23.8% 19.9–24.1% 19.3–24.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.9% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.5% 13.2–16.8% 12.7–17.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.5% 12.3–15.8% 11.8–16.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.5–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 22–26 21–26 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–18
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 5% 99.4%  
33 10% 95%  
34 19% 85% Last Result
35 27% 66% Median
36 22% 39%  
37 11% 17%  
38 5% 6%  
39 1.2% 1.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.5% 100%  
21 3% 99.5%  
22 14% 97%  
23 27% 83%  
24 28% 56% Median
25 18% 28%  
26 8% 10%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 13% 97%  
15 32% 83%  
16 32% 51% Median
17 16% 19%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 4% 99.6%  
13 21% 95%  
14 36% 75% Median
15 23% 39%  
16 13% 15%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 10% 99.7%  
7 49% 89% Median
8 31% 41%  
9 9% 9%  
10 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 5% 94%  
5 58% 88% Median
6 27% 30%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 72–77 71–79 71–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 62–66 61–66 61–67 60–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 57–61 56–62 56–63 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 58% 48–53 48–53 47–54 46–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 3% 45–49 45–50 44–51 43–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–47 39–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–45 40–45 39–46 39–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 38–42 37–43 37–43 35–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–42 35–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 29–34 28–35 28–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 28 0% 26–30 25–30 24–31 22–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 2% 99.7%  
72 10% 97%  
73 19% 87%  
74 20% 69%  
75 31% 49% Median
76 10% 18%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3% Last Result
80 1.0% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 7% 98.9%  
62 6% 92%  
63 35% 86%  
64 15% 52% Median
65 25% 36% Last Result
66 7% 11%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.8%  
56 7% 98.9%  
57 9% 92%  
58 34% 83%  
59 15% 49% Median
60 19% 34%  
61 9% 16%  
62 3% 7%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 10% 97%  
49 14% 88%  
50 16% 74%  
51 31% 58% Median, Majority
52 13% 26%  
53 10% 14%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.5% 1.0%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.7%  
44 3% 99.0%  
45 9% 96%  
46 15% 87%  
47 23% 72% Median
48 20% 49%  
49 21% 30%  
50 6% 8%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 0.9% 99.1%  
41 4% 98%  
42 8% 94%  
43 13% 86%  
44 33% 73%  
45 16% 40% Median
46 15% 24%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 9% 97%  
41 16% 88%  
42 23% 72% Median
43 23% 49%  
44 15% 26% Last Result
45 6% 11%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.1% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.8%  
36 1.2% 98.8%  
37 4% 98%  
38 9% 93%  
39 19% 84%  
40 23% 65% Median
41 24% 42%  
42 12% 18%  
43 5% 6%  
44 0.8% 1.0%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 10% 97%  
38 16% 88%  
39 32% 71%  
40 17% 39% Median
41 14% 23%  
42 6% 8%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 11% 97% Last Result
30 21% 86%  
31 26% 65% Median
32 22% 40%  
33 11% 18%  
34 4% 6%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 1.1% 99.1%  
24 2% 98%  
25 4% 96%  
26 8% 92%  
27 21% 84%  
28 22% 63% Median
29 28% 41%  
30 8% 12%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 3% 99.7%  
21 9% 97%  
22 26% 88%  
23 29% 62% Median
24 23% 33%  
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations