Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.5% 30.6–34.4% 30.1–35.0% 29.7–35.5% 28.8–36.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 33–38 33–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 8% 97%  
34 14% 89% Last Result
35 25% 76%  
36 14% 50% Median
37 16% 36%  
38 11% 20%  
39 5% 9%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.8% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 6% 98%  
24 11% 92%  
25 19% 81%  
26 25% 62% Median
27 21% 37%  
28 9% 16%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 5% 98.9%  
17 15% 93%  
18 20% 79%  
19 31% 59% Median
20 19% 29%  
21 6% 10%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.7% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 5% 99.7%  
7 25% 94%  
8 41% 69% Median
9 21% 27%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 9% 99.2%  
7 24% 90%  
8 40% 66% Median
9 22% 26%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 13% 90%  
5 51% 77% Median
6 22% 26%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–83 78–85 77–86 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 67–73 67–73 66–74 65–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 59–65 59–66 58–66 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 98% 52–57 51–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 86% 50–55 49–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 14% 46–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.4% 42–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.2% 41–47 41–47 40–48 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 38–43 37–44 36–44 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 32 0% 29–34 27–34 27–35 25–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 28–33 27–34 26–34 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 20–26 19–26 19–27 17–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.6% 99.9%  
77 3% 99.3%  
78 10% 97%  
79 18% 87% Last Result
80 26% 69%  
81 20% 43% Median
82 9% 23%  
83 5% 15%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 5%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
66 2% 99.1%  
67 10% 97%  
68 16% 87%  
69 27% 71%  
70 11% 44% Median
71 12% 33%  
72 8% 21%  
73 9% 13%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.3%  
77 0.7% 0.8%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.8% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.0%  
59 11% 96%  
60 11% 85%  
61 24% 74%  
62 18% 49% Median
63 9% 31%  
64 10% 22%  
65 6% 12%  
66 5% 6%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.4% 99.6%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 10% 95%  
53 17% 85%  
54 21% 68%  
55 16% 47% Median
56 13% 31%  
57 9% 18%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 8% 94%  
51 14% 86% Majority
52 19% 72%  
53 20% 53% Median
54 17% 33%  
55 8% 16%  
56 4% 8%  
57 2% 4% Last Result
58 0.9% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.2% 99.7%  
44 1.4% 98.5%  
45 4% 97%  
46 9% 93%  
47 13% 83%  
48 21% 70%  
49 18% 49% Median
50 16% 31%  
51 6% 14% Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 8% 95%  
43 12% 87%  
44 21% 75%  
45 25% 53% Last Result, Median
46 9% 28%  
47 11% 19%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.9% 99.8%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 9% 97%  
42 13% 87%  
43 23% 75%  
44 16% 51% Median
45 18% 36%  
46 7% 18% Last Result
47 7% 11%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.6%  
36 2% 98%  
37 4% 97%  
38 9% 93%  
39 15% 84%  
40 23% 70%  
41 14% 47% Median
42 16% 33%  
43 9% 17%  
44 6% 8% Last Result
45 2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.8%  
26 1.2% 99.4%  
27 3% 98%  
28 4% 95%  
29 8% 91%  
30 12% 82%  
31 18% 70%  
32 23% 52% Median
33 15% 30%  
34 11% 15%  
35 3% 4%  
36 1.2% 1.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 0.8% 99.5%  
26 2% 98.7%  
27 3% 96%  
28 8% 93%  
29 12% 85% Last Result
30 14% 73%  
31 25% 59% Median
32 19% 33%  
33 8% 14%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.8%  
18 1.0% 99.1%  
19 3% 98%  
20 5% 95%  
21 6% 90%  
22 12% 84%  
23 18% 72%  
24 27% 54% Median
25 13% 27%  
26 9% 14%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations