Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–28 November 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.6% 31.7–35.6% 31.2–36.1% 30.7–36.6% 29.8–37.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–41 34–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 23–28 23–29 22–29 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
Eesti 200 0 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 8–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.6%  
34 5% 98.9% Last Result
35 9% 94%  
36 10% 85%  
37 17% 76%  
38 14% 59% Median
39 22% 45%  
40 12% 23%  
41 8% 11%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.9%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.3%  
23 10% 97%  
24 15% 87%  
25 19% 72%  
26 24% 53% Median
27 15% 30%  
28 8% 14%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 8% 98.6%  
16 19% 91%  
17 27% 72% Median
18 20% 44%  
19 14% 25%  
20 7% 11%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 5% 99.7%  
9 24% 95%  
10 34% 71% Median
11 22% 36%  
12 11% 14%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 1.1% 99.7%  
5 18% 98.6%  
6 38% 80% Median
7 31% 42%  
8 9% 11%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0% 71%  
4 21% 71% Median
5 36% 50%  
6 12% 13%  
7 1.4% 1.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 81 100% 78–84 78–85 77–86 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 70 100% 67–73 66–74 65–74 65–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 60–67 60–68 59–68 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.2% 52–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 31% 46–52 46–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 14% 45–51 44–52 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.1% 41–47 41–48 40–48 39–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–45 37–45 37–46 35–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–32 25–33 24–33 23–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 24–30 23–31 22–32 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 17–24 16–25 16–25 15–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 1.1% 99.9%  
77 3% 98.8%  
78 8% 95%  
79 17% 88% Last Result
80 14% 70%  
81 18% 56% Median
82 13% 38%  
83 9% 25%  
84 6% 16%  
85 6% 9%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.6% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.5% Last Result
66 5% 97%  
67 12% 93%  
68 14% 80%  
69 13% 67%  
70 11% 53% Median
71 15% 42%  
72 8% 27%  
73 11% 19%  
74 6% 8%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 8% 97%  
61 10% 89%  
62 16% 79%  
63 13% 63%  
64 13% 50% Median
65 15% 36%  
66 8% 21%  
67 8% 14%  
68 4% 6%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 3% 99.2% Majority
52 7% 96%  
53 9% 89%  
54 10% 80%  
55 17% 70% Median
56 26% 53%  
57 14% 27%  
58 6% 13%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 0.7% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.6%  
45 3% 98.8%  
46 8% 96%  
47 10% 88%  
48 15% 79%  
49 15% 64% Median
50 17% 48%  
51 14% 31% Majority
52 8% 17%  
53 5% 9%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.5%  
43 2% 98.5%  
44 5% 96%  
45 7% 91%  
46 15% 84%  
47 15% 69%  
48 15% 54% Median
49 14% 38%  
50 11% 25%  
51 7% 14% Majority
52 5% 6%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.8%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 11% 88%  
43 13% 77%  
44 15% 64% Median
45 17% 49%  
46 15% 32% Last Result
47 10% 17%  
48 5% 7%  
49 0.8% 1.4%  
50 0.5% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.8%  
39 5% 98.6%  
40 8% 93%  
41 8% 86%  
42 15% 77%  
43 20% 62% Median
44 18% 42%  
45 12% 24% Last Result
46 5% 12%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 99.3%  
37 3% 98%  
38 6% 95%  
39 13% 88%  
40 8% 75%  
41 19% 67%  
42 11% 47% Median
43 14% 36%  
44 9% 22% Last Result
45 10% 13%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.2%  
25 3% 97%  
26 8% 94%  
27 9% 85%  
28 14% 76%  
29 16% 62% Last Result
30 18% 46% Median
31 14% 28%  
32 8% 13%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 1.5% 98%  
23 5% 97%  
24 9% 92%  
25 6% 82%  
26 9% 76%  
27 20% 67% Median
28 16% 47%  
29 11% 32%  
30 11% 21%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 4% 98.9%  
17 7% 95%  
18 8% 87%  
19 9% 80%  
20 9% 71%  
21 18% 62% Median
22 14% 45%  
23 14% 30%  
24 10% 16%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations