Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 29 November–5 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.3% 99.6% Last Result
35 4% 98%  
36 10% 94%  
37 17% 84%  
38 18% 67% Median
39 21% 49%  
40 12% 29%  
41 7% 17%  
42 6% 10%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.7%  
23 6% 98.5%  
24 10% 93%  
25 18% 83%  
26 23% 65% Median
27 22% 42%  
28 11% 20%  
29 5% 8%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 10% 96%  
15 26% 86%  
16 27% 60% Median
17 21% 33%  
18 8% 13%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.1% 100%  
8 8% 98.9%  
9 25% 91%  
10 37% 65% Median
11 20% 29%  
12 7% 9%  
13 1.2% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 5% 99.8%  
6 29% 95%  
7 40% 66% Median
8 19% 26%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 0% 72%  
4 22% 72%  
5 38% 51% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–84 77–85 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 68 100% 66–71 65–71 64–72 63–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 65 100% 62–68 61–69 61–69 59–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 97% 52–57 51–58 50–59 49–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 25% 46–52 45–53 45–53 43–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 1.0% 42–49 41–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 1.3% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 27 0% 23–29 22–30 22–30 20–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.3% 100%  
76 1.3% 99.6%  
77 7% 98%  
78 8% 91%  
79 19% 83% Last Result
80 15% 64% Median
81 18% 49%  
82 10% 32%  
83 10% 22%  
84 6% 12%  
85 4% 6%  
86 1.5% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.8%  
64 2% 99.0%  
65 6% 97% Last Result
66 10% 91%  
67 17% 81%  
68 19% 64%  
69 22% 46% Median
70 11% 24%  
71 8% 13%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.9% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.3%  
61 6% 98%  
62 10% 91%  
63 15% 82%  
64 13% 67% Median
65 21% 54%  
66 10% 32%  
67 10% 22%  
68 6% 12%  
69 4% 6%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 1.2% 99.8%  
50 2% 98.6%  
51 5% 97% Majority
52 8% 91%  
53 15% 83%  
54 23% 68% Median
55 17% 45%  
56 8% 29%  
57 12% 20%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 1.1% 2% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 1.2% 99.2%  
45 4% 98%  
46 6% 94%  
47 13% 88%  
48 14% 75%  
49 22% 61%  
50 15% 39% Median
51 13% 25% Majority
52 6% 11%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.5%  
41 4% 98%  
42 6% 94%  
43 7% 88%  
44 14% 81%  
45 13% 68%  
46 18% 55%  
47 17% 37% Median
48 9% 21%  
49 7% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.7% 1.0% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 6% 97%  
43 10% 91%  
44 15% 81% Last Result
45 21% 67% Median
46 15% 46%  
47 13% 31%  
48 9% 19%  
49 7% 10%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.0% 1.3% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.3% 99.3%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 94%  
40 8% 86%  
41 18% 78%  
42 20% 60%  
43 14% 40% Median
44 13% 26%  
45 7% 13%  
46 3% 6% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.7%  
38 3% 98.9%  
39 5% 95%  
40 13% 90%  
41 15% 77%  
42 24% 62% Median
43 14% 39%  
44 12% 25%  
45 8% 13% Last Result
46 3% 5%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 2% 99.3% Last Result
30 7% 97%  
31 9% 90%  
32 17% 81%  
33 24% 64% Median
34 20% 40%  
35 11% 20%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.8% 1.0%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.2%  
22 6% 98%  
23 7% 92%  
24 7% 86%  
25 10% 78%  
26 16% 68%  
27 17% 52%  
28 16% 36% Median
29 12% 20%  
30 6% 8%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 5% 98%  
21 12% 93%  
22 24% 81%  
23 21% 57% Median
24 20% 36%  
25 9% 16%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.5% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations