Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 6 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.0% 32.6–37.6% 31.9–38.3% 31.3–38.9% 30.1–40.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.0–23.3% 18.4–23.9% 17.9–24.4% 17.0–25.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.0% 12.3–16.0% 11.8–16.5% 11.4–17.0% 10.7–18.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.0% 9.5–12.8% 9.1–13.3% 8.7–13.8% 8.1–14.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 20–25 19–26 19–27 18–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 14 12–17 12–17 11–18 10–19
Eesti 200 0 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 4–9 0–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–9 4–9 0–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
35 1.4% 99.2%  
36 5% 98%  
37 7% 93%  
38 10% 87%  
39 14% 77%  
40 17% 63% Median
41 15% 46%  
42 14% 31%  
43 8% 17%  
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 0.7% 99.6%  
19 4% 98.9% Last Result
20 11% 95%  
21 10% 83%  
22 14% 73%  
23 22% 59% Median
24 21% 36%  
25 8% 15%  
26 3% 7%  
27 2% 4%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 10% 96%  
13 18% 87%  
14 23% 69% Median
15 22% 46%  
16 13% 24%  
17 7% 11%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.9% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 11% 96%  
10 31% 85%  
11 22% 54% Median
12 18% 32%  
13 9% 14%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.7% 1.0%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 1.3% 98%  
5 17% 97%  
6 35% 80% Median
7 29% 46%  
8 12% 17%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 3% 98.9%  
5 19% 96%  
6 35% 77% Median
7 26% 42%  
8 11% 16%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 78 100% 74–80 74–81 73–82 72–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 66–72 65–73 65–74 63–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 95% 51–58 51–59 50–59 48–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 53 86% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 46 7% 43–50 42–51 42–52 40–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 6% 43–50 42–51 42–52 40–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0.2% 40–47 39–47 39–48 37–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–32 25–33 25–34 23–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 24–30 24–31 22–32 20–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 18–23 18–24 17–25 14–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 1.3% 99.6%  
73 3% 98%  
74 7% 96%  
75 11% 89%  
76 10% 78%  
77 17% 67% Median
78 18% 51%  
79 19% 33% Last Result
80 7% 13%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.8%  
64 1.4% 99.2%  
65 3% 98% Last Result
66 5% 95%  
67 10% 90%  
68 16% 79%  
69 18% 63% Median
70 16% 46%  
71 12% 30%  
72 11% 19%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.6%  
58 3% 98.7%  
59 4% 96%  
60 6% 92%  
61 14% 86%  
62 13% 71%  
63 15% 59% Median
64 16% 43%  
65 12% 27%  
66 8% 15%  
67 5% 8%  
68 1.5% 3%  
69 0.6% 1.4%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.4% 99.3%  
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 95% Majority
52 7% 88%  
53 12% 81%  
54 15% 69% Median
55 21% 54%  
56 11% 33%  
57 8% 22%  
58 8% 14%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.2% 2% Last Result
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 1.2% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 7% 92%  
51 12% 86% Majority
52 15% 73% Median
53 17% 58%  
54 14% 41%  
55 12% 27%  
56 7% 15% Last Result
57 4% 8%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.9% 1.2%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 8% 89%  
45 12% 81%  
46 19% 69% Last Result, Median
47 14% 50%  
48 15% 36%  
49 10% 21%  
50 5% 12%  
51 4% 7% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 1.4% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 94%  
44 8% 90% Last Result
45 12% 82%  
46 17% 70% Median
47 15% 53%  
48 18% 38%  
49 9% 21%  
50 6% 12%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.7%  
38 1.5% 99.1%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 10% 88%  
42 12% 78%  
43 17% 66% Median
44 15% 49%  
45 17% 34%  
46 7% 17%  
47 6% 10%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 13% 86%  
36 12% 74%  
37 18% 61% Median
38 15% 43%  
39 14% 28%  
40 7% 15%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 1.3%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.6%  
24 1.1% 98.8%  
25 4% 98%  
26 6% 94%  
27 11% 88%  
28 15% 78%  
29 20% 62% Last Result, Median
30 16% 42%  
31 13% 26%  
32 7% 14%  
33 4% 6%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.3% 99.7%  
21 0.6% 99.4%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 2% 97%  
24 5% 95%  
25 16% 90%  
26 12% 74% Median
27 20% 61%  
28 16% 41%  
29 10% 25%  
30 8% 15%  
31 4% 7%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.7% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.7%  
15 0.5% 99.2%  
16 0.8% 98.7%  
17 3% 98%  
18 8% 95%  
19 14% 87%  
20 17% 73% Median
21 23% 57%  
22 15% 34%  
23 10% 19%  
24 5% 9%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.7% 1.0%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations