Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–12 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.3% 29.5–33.2% 28.9–33.8% 28.5–34.2% 27.6–35.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 32–38 32–39 30–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 30 27–32 27–33 27–33 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 6% 98%  
33 11% 92%  
34 22% 80% Last Result
35 21% 58% Median
36 15% 38%  
37 12% 23%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.6%  
27 8% 98%  
28 12% 90%  
29 14% 78%  
30 35% 64% Median
31 15% 29%  
32 9% 14%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 5% 99.0%  
14 15% 94%  
15 34% 79% Median
16 23% 44%  
17 16% 22%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.9% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 25% 96%  
8 45% 71% Median
9 20% 26%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 10% 99.3%  
7 34% 89%  
8 35% 55% Median
9 16% 20%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 12% 94%  
5 41% 82% Median
6 34% 40%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 77–84 77–85 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 72 100% 71–75 70–76 69–77 68–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 65 100% 63–67 62–68 61–69 60–71
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 88% 50–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 50% 48–53 47–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 12% 45–51 44–51 44–52 42–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.5% 43–48 42–48 41–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–43 37–43 36–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 28 0% 26–30 25–31 24–32 22–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 18–23 17–23 16–23 14–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.9% 99.8%  
77 4% 98.9%  
78 8% 95%  
79 23% 87% Last Result
80 22% 64% Median
81 19% 42%  
82 13% 23%  
83 4% 10%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 3% 99.2%  
70 7% 97%  
71 15% 90%  
72 31% 75%  
73 19% 44% Median
74 13% 25%  
75 6% 12%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.8% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 7% 97%  
63 11% 90%  
64 23% 79%  
65 25% 57% Median
66 14% 32%  
67 10% 17%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.8%  
49 3% 98.9%  
50 8% 96%  
51 8% 88% Majority
52 23% 80%  
53 20% 58% Median
54 19% 38%  
55 8% 19%  
56 8% 11%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.7%  
47 4% 98%  
48 8% 93%  
49 21% 86%  
50 14% 65% Median
51 18% 50% Majority
52 19% 33%  
53 8% 14%  
54 4% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 99.4%  
44 4% 98%  
45 5% 94%  
46 15% 89%  
47 21% 74%  
48 22% 53% Median
49 9% 31%  
50 10% 22%  
51 9% 12% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.6%  
42 6% 97%  
43 12% 91%  
44 10% 79%  
45 24% 68% Last Result, Median
46 16% 44%  
47 17% 28%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 6% 96%  
41 18% 90%  
42 26% 71%  
43 12% 45% Median
44 12% 33%  
45 9% 22%  
46 9% 12% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 96%  
38 11% 90%  
39 14% 79%  
40 25% 65% Median
41 17% 40%  
42 13% 23%  
43 6% 11%  
44 4% 5% Last Result
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
30 1.2% 98.7%  
31 3% 97%  
32 6% 94%  
33 14% 89%  
34 16% 75%  
35 17% 60% Median
36 26% 42%  
37 9% 17%  
38 6% 7%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.7%  
23 1.0% 99.3%  
24 3% 98%  
25 4% 96%  
26 8% 92%  
27 15% 84%  
28 24% 69% Median
29 25% 45%  
30 12% 20%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 1.4% 99.4%  
16 2% 98%  
17 3% 96%  
18 5% 93%  
19 9% 89%  
20 23% 79% Median
21 31% 56%  
22 14% 24%  
23 8% 10%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations