Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 8–16 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.2% 28.7–31.7% 28.3–32.2% 27.9–32.6% 27.2–33.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.1% 16.9–19.5% 16.6–19.8% 16.3–20.2% 15.7–20.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.6–17.7% 14.3–18.0% 13.8–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.1% 13.0–15.3% 12.7–15.7% 12.4–16.0% 11.9–16.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.1% 8.2–10.1% 7.9–10.4% 7.7–10.6% 7.3–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.1% 7.2–9.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.4–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–22
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Eesti 200 0 15 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.6% 100%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 9% 97%  
33 17% 89%  
34 26% 71% Last Result, Median
35 28% 45%  
36 11% 17%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 6% 99.1%  
18 20% 93%  
19 34% 74% Last Result, Median
20 25% 40%  
21 11% 15%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 10% 98.6%  
16 33% 88%  
17 29% 56% Median
18 20% 27%  
19 6% 7%  
20 1.2% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 15% 97%  
14 29% 82%  
15 37% 54% Median
16 13% 16%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 5% 99.7%  
8 36% 94%  
9 45% 58% Median
10 11% 13% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 7% 99.9%  
7 45% 93% Median
8 36% 48%  
9 10% 11%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 70 100% 69–72 68–72 67–73 67–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–63 59–64 58–64 57–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 97% 51–55 51–56 50–56 50–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 66% 49–53 49–54 48–54 47–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 50% 48–52 48–53 47–54 46–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 42–46 41–46 41–47 40–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–45 41–45 40–46 39–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–44 39–44 39–45 38–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 36 0% 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 31–35 31–36 30–36 30–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 26–30 25–30 25–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 4% 99.5%  
68 5% 95%  
69 18% 90%  
70 28% 72% Median
71 24% 44%  
72 15% 20%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.6% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.8% 99.9%  
58 3% 99.1%  
59 10% 96%  
60 23% 86% Median
61 26% 64%  
62 25% 37%  
63 6% 12%  
64 6% 6%  
65 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 3% 99.6%  
51 7% 97% Majority
52 13% 90%  
53 28% 77% Last Result, Median
54 23% 49%  
55 18% 26%  
56 6% 8%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 4% 99.1%  
49 11% 95%  
50 18% 84%  
51 30% 66% Median, Majority
52 19% 36%  
53 11% 17%  
54 5% 6%  
55 1.2% 1.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.4%  
48 9% 97%  
49 11% 89%  
50 27% 77% Median
51 29% 50% Majority
52 12% 21%  
53 6% 9%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 2% 99.8%  
41 8% 98%  
42 14% 90%  
43 28% 76% Median
44 22% 48%  
45 16% 27%  
46 8% 11%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.8%  
41 15% 96%  
42 13% 80%  
43 33% 67% Median
44 24% 35% Last Result
45 6% 11%  
46 4% 5%  
47 0.9% 1.0%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.3% 99.8%  
39 4% 98.6%  
40 13% 94%  
41 22% 81% Median
42 32% 60%  
43 15% 27%  
44 8% 12%  
45 4% 4%  
46 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.3%  
34 13% 96%  
35 21% 84%  
36 27% 63% Median
37 18% 36%  
38 13% 18%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.5%  
31 12% 97%  
32 22% 84%  
33 29% 62% Median
34 17% 33%  
35 11% 16%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.7% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 4% 99.5%  
26 8% 96%  
27 24% 87%  
28 32% 63% Median
29 18% 31% Last Result
30 10% 12%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.6% 0.6%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.9%  
23 4% 98.7%  
24 18% 95%  
25 31% 77%  
26 24% 46% Median
27 16% 22%  
28 4% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations