Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 13–19 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.8% 29.9–33.7% 29.4–34.3% 29.0–34.8% 28.1–35.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.7% 12.6–18.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–18 14–18 13–18 12–19
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.4%  
33 5% 96%  
34 13% 91% Last Result
35 23% 78%  
36 21% 54% Median
37 16% 34%  
38 12% 18%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.8%  
24 4% 98%  
25 10% 94%  
26 24% 84%  
27 19% 60% Median
28 19% 41%  
29 13% 22%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 4% 99.2%  
14 13% 95%  
15 27% 83%  
16 30% 55% Median
17 15% 25%  
18 8% 10%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8%  
8 21% 96%  
9 35% 75% Median
10 27% 39%  
11 10% 12%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 19% 96%  
7 42% 77% Median
8 27% 36%  
9 8% 9%  
10 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 4% 98%  
5 25% 94%  
6 34% 69% Median
7 32% 35%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 79 100% 77–81 76–81 75–82 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 67–71 66–72 65–72 64–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 61–65 60–66 59–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 69% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 19% 47–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 20% 46–51 45–52 45–52 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.4%  
76 6% 97%  
77 15% 92%  
78 27% 77%  
79 23% 50% Last Result, Median
80 15% 27%  
81 8% 12%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.7% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.2% Last Result
66 6% 97%  
67 11% 91%  
68 21% 79%  
69 22% 59% Median
70 20% 37%  
71 10% 16%  
72 4% 6%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.8% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 5% 97%  
61 13% 92%  
62 21% 79%  
63 22% 58% Median
64 17% 36%  
65 11% 19%  
66 5% 8%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 3% 98%  
49 8% 95%  
50 18% 86%  
51 18% 69% Majority
52 23% 51% Median
53 13% 29%  
54 10% 16%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.5% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.6%  
45 3% 98.8%  
46 6% 96%  
47 13% 90%  
48 20% 78%  
49 17% 58% Median
50 22% 41%  
51 9% 19% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.6%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 94%  
47 15% 88%  
48 16% 72%  
49 18% 56% Median
50 18% 38%  
51 12% 20% Majority
52 6% 8%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 6% 97%  
41 13% 91%  
42 19% 78%  
43 19% 59% Median
44 16% 39% Last Result
45 15% 23%  
46 4% 8%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.8%  
39 3% 98.8%  
40 8% 96%  
41 11% 88%  
42 20% 77%  
43 20% 56% Median
44 16% 36%  
45 12% 20% Last Result
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.8% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 7% 95%  
40 13% 88%  
41 18% 76%  
42 25% 57% Median
43 14% 32%  
44 11% 18%  
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2% Last Result
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100% Last Result
30 2% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 9% 94%  
33 19% 85%  
34 21% 66% Median
35 20% 45%  
36 14% 26%  
37 7% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.9% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 0.5% 99.6%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 6% 96%  
27 11% 90%  
28 19% 79%  
29 25% 60% Median
30 17% 35%  
31 12% 18%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.5% 99.9%  
20 4% 98%  
21 12% 94%  
22 21% 82%  
23 29% 61% Median
24 16% 32%  
25 10% 16%  
26 4% 5%  
27 1.2% 1.5%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations