Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–27 December 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.5% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 10 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.6%  
32 5% 98.6%  
33 12% 94%  
34 11% 81% Last Result
35 26% 70% Median
36 17% 44%  
37 12% 28%  
38 10% 15%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 5% 98.6%  
23 12% 93%  
24 22% 81%  
25 23% 59% Median
26 20% 36%  
27 10% 17%  
28 5% 7%  
29 1.1% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.7%  
15 5% 98%  
16 25% 94%  
17 29% 69% Median
18 18% 40%  
19 15% 22%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.2% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 3% 99.8%  
9 19% 97%  
10 29% 78% Median
11 28% 49%  
12 18% 21%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 10% 99.2%  
8 32% 89%  
9 35% 57% Median
10 16% 22%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 0% 81%  
4 12% 81%  
5 45% 68% Median
6 21% 24%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–81 75–82 74–82 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 67–72 66–73 65–74 64–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 58–63 57–64 56–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 84% 50–56 49–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 57% 48–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 48 15% 45–51 44–52 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.2% 41–47 41–47 40–48 39–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–42 35–43 35–43 33–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 30 0% 27–33 26–34 26–34 24–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–32 25–32 24–33 23–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 18–24 17–25 17–25 16–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.9% 99.8%  
74 3% 98.9%  
75 11% 96%  
76 23% 85%  
77 15% 62% Median
78 16% 47%  
79 11% 31% Last Result
80 6% 20%  
81 7% 14%  
82 5% 7%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.7% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.1% Last Result
66 6% 97%  
67 15% 91%  
68 19% 76%  
69 21% 58% Median
70 13% 36%  
71 8% 23%  
72 10% 15%  
73 3% 5%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 5% 97%  
58 11% 93%  
59 17% 81%  
60 21% 64% Median
61 16% 43%  
62 10% 27%  
63 10% 17%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 99.6%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 94%  
51 14% 84% Majority
52 19% 69% Median
53 16% 50%  
54 14% 34%  
55 8% 20%  
56 7% 12%  
57 4% 5%  
58 0.7% 1.2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.8%  
47 4% 98.9%  
48 9% 95%  
49 13% 87%  
50 16% 73%  
51 18% 57% Median, Majority
52 15% 39%  
53 12% 25%  
54 7% 13%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 4% 98.6%  
45 6% 94%  
46 8% 89%  
47 14% 80%  
48 20% 66%  
49 17% 47% Median
50 15% 30%  
51 9% 15% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 8% 97%  
42 9% 89%  
43 18% 80%  
44 21% 62% Median
45 18% 40%  
46 9% 22% Last Result
47 9% 14%  
48 3% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 3% 99.4%  
39 4% 97%  
40 13% 92%  
41 18% 80%  
42 19% 62% Median
43 18% 43%  
44 10% 26%  
45 9% 15% Last Result
46 4% 7%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.8% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 1.0% 99.4%  
35 4% 98%  
36 4% 94%  
37 8% 90%  
38 13% 82%  
39 15% 69%  
40 20% 54% Median
41 15% 34%  
42 11% 20%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 2% Last Result
45 0.6% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 4% 98%  
27 9% 94%  
28 4% 85%  
29 15% 81%  
30 21% 66%  
31 14% 44% Median
32 14% 30%  
33 9% 16%  
34 5% 6%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 5% 97%  
26 6% 92%  
27 7% 86%  
28 14% 79%  
29 19% 65% Last Result
30 15% 45% Median
31 18% 30%  
32 8% 12%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.8% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.2% 99.6%  
17 4% 98%  
18 7% 94%  
19 5% 87%  
20 6% 82%  
21 21% 76%  
22 23% 54% Median
23 14% 32%  
24 12% 17%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations