Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–16 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.4% 28.6–32.3% 28.1–32.9% 27.6–33.3% 26.8–34.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–37 31–37 31–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 10 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.5% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 13% 98.7%  
32 9% 86%  
33 30% 76% Median
34 9% 46% Last Result
35 20% 37%  
36 5% 17%  
37 9% 12%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.9% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 9% 97% Last Result
20 17% 87%  
21 26% 70% Median
22 19% 44%  
23 16% 25%  
24 7% 9%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 5% 98.6%  
17 16% 93%  
18 20% 77%  
19 30% 57% Median
20 18% 27%  
21 7% 10%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8%  
9 17% 96%  
10 36% 79% Median
11 24% 43%  
12 14% 19%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 5% 99.6%  
8 29% 94%  
9 35% 66% Median
10 22% 31% Last Result
11 7% 9%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 9% 99.6%  
7 31% 91%  
8 36% 60% Median
9 19% 24%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 71–77 71–77 69–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–65 60–66 60–66 58–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.5% 53–58 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 83% 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 48% 48–53 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 8% 45–50 44–51 44–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–46 40–47 40–47 39–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 37–43 37–43 36–43 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 25–30 25–30 25–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 7% 98%  
72 13% 91%  
73 23% 78% Median
74 22% 56%  
75 18% 34%  
76 11% 16%  
77 4% 5%  
78 0.8% 1.1%  
79 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 1.1% 99.8%  
59 1.2% 98.7%  
60 8% 98%  
61 10% 90%  
62 21% 80% Median
63 21% 58%  
64 16% 37%  
65 14% 21% Last Result
66 6% 8%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.5% Majority
52 6% 97%  
53 11% 91% Last Result
54 20% 81% Median
55 20% 61%  
56 17% 41%  
57 11% 24%  
58 9% 13%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.7% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.6%  
49 4% 98%  
50 11% 94%  
51 14% 83% Majority
52 20% 69% Median
53 20% 49%  
54 14% 29%  
55 9% 15%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.1%  
48 13% 96%  
49 17% 82%  
50 18% 66% Median
51 16% 48% Majority
52 12% 32%  
53 10% 20%  
54 6% 10%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.3%  
44 4% 98%  
45 9% 94%  
46 11% 85%  
47 18% 74%  
48 16% 56% Median
49 16% 40%  
50 16% 24%  
51 6% 8% Majority
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.7%  
40 9% 98%  
41 23% 89%  
42 23% 66% Median
43 10% 44%  
44 10% 34% Last Result
45 9% 23%  
46 8% 15%  
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 3% 99.0%  
39 12% 96%  
40 15% 84%  
41 18% 69% Median
42 20% 51%  
43 13% 31%  
44 12% 18%  
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 3% Last Result
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.1% 99.8%  
36 2% 98.7%  
37 7% 96%  
38 13% 90%  
39 15% 77%  
40 23% 61% Median
41 14% 39%  
42 12% 24%  
43 11% 13%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 5% 99.2%  
33 5% 94%  
34 19% 89%  
35 20% 69%  
36 18% 49% Median
37 20% 30%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.9%  
27 4% 98.9%  
28 11% 95%  
29 17% 85% Last Result
30 22% 67% Median
31 19% 46%  
32 14% 26%  
33 9% 12%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 1.4% 99.4%  
25 10% 98%  
26 9% 88%  
27 26% 79%  
28 23% 53% Median
29 19% 31%  
30 7% 12%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.9% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations