Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 19–26 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.5% 30.1–33.0% 29.7–33.4% 29.4–33.7% 28.7–34.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.1% 18.0–20.4% 17.6–20.7% 17.3–21.1% 16.8–21.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.4% 11.4–13.5% 11.1–13.8% 10.9–14.0% 10.5–14.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.8–8.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.6% 4.9–6.4% 4.7–6.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–39 35–40 34–41 34–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Eesti 200 0 13 12–14 11–15 11–15 11–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100%  
34 3% 99.6% Last Result
35 7% 97%  
36 17% 90%  
37 25% 73% Median
38 24% 48%  
39 14% 24%  
40 6% 9%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.8% 100%  
19 6% 99.2% Last Result
20 19% 93%  
21 28% 74% Median
22 32% 46%  
23 10% 14%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 24% 96%  
17 30% 72% Median
18 27% 42%  
19 12% 16%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 5% 99.6%  
12 28% 94%  
13 36% 66% Median
14 24% 30%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 10% 99.7%  
7 45% 89% Median
8 36% 44%  
9 8% 8%  
10 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 5% 87%  
5 57% 82% Median
6 23% 24%  
7 1.4% 1.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–79 73–80 73–81 73–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 61–65 60–66 60–66 59–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 57–61 56–62 56–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 99.7% 53–57 52–58 52–59 51–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 25% 47–52 46–52 46–52 44–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.1% 43–47 42–48 42–49 41–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–46 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–44 38–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 36–41 36–42 35–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–30 26–31 26–32 25–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 27–31 26–32 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–28 22–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 5% 99.5%  
74 11% 95%  
75 24% 83% Median
76 30% 60%  
77 13% 29%  
78 6% 17%  
79 3% 11% Last Result
80 4% 7%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.7% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 1.4% 99.8%  
60 4% 98%  
61 7% 94%  
62 15% 88%  
63 28% 73% Median
64 20% 45%  
65 18% 25% Last Result
66 5% 7%  
67 1.2% 1.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0.5% 100%  
55 1.1% 99.4%  
56 8% 98%  
57 12% 91%  
58 26% 78% Median
59 20% 52%  
60 19% 32%  
61 6% 13%  
62 4% 7%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.8% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 2% 99.7% Majority
52 5% 98%  
53 17% 93%  
54 26% 76% Median
55 19% 49%  
56 13% 30%  
57 9% 17%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.0%  
46 5% 98%  
47 7% 93%  
48 13% 86%  
49 19% 72% Median
50 28% 54%  
51 13% 25% Majority
52 10% 12%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 2% 99.7%  
42 5% 98%  
43 13% 92%  
44 24% 80% Last Result, Median
45 22% 56%  
46 16% 34%  
47 11% 17%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 5% 97%  
41 9% 92%  
42 14% 83%  
43 27% 69% Median
44 17% 42%  
45 19% 26%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.6%  
38 4% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 9% 90%  
41 16% 81%  
42 21% 65% Median
43 26% 45%  
44 12% 18%  
45 5% 6%  
46 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.4% 99.8%  
36 6% 98%  
37 17% 92%  
38 23% 75% Median
39 26% 52%  
40 15% 26%  
41 7% 11%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 5% 98.9%  
27 15% 94%  
28 20% 79% Median
29 30% 59% Last Result
30 21% 29%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 1.4% 98%  
26 5% 96%  
27 5% 91%  
28 14% 86%  
29 24% 72% Median
30 21% 48%  
31 20% 27%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 14% 96%  
24 29% 82% Median
25 26% 54%  
26 18% 28%  
27 7% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations