Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 27 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.0% 23.8–28.4% 23.2–29.1% 22.6–29.7% 21.6–30.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.0% 22.8–27.4% 22.2–28.0% 21.7–28.6% 20.7–29.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.2–18.1% 13.7–18.6% 13.3–19.2% 12.5–20.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.4–14.9% 10.9–15.5% 10.5–15.9% 9.8–16.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5% 0.9–4.0%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.5–2.2% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 26–32 26–33 25–34 24–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 25–31 24–32 24–33 22–34
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–19 14–20 14–21 13–22
Eesti 200 0 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 10–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–9 4–9 0–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 5–8 5–9 4–9 0–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.6%  
25 3% 98.5%  
26 6% 96%  
27 9% 89%  
28 18% 80%  
29 17% 62% Median
30 14% 45%  
31 15% 30%  
32 8% 16%  
33 4% 8%  
34 2% 4% Last Result
35 0.8% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 4% 98%  
25 5% 94%  
26 11% 89%  
27 15% 78%  
28 22% 63% Median
29 13% 41%  
30 11% 28%  
31 10% 17%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 7% 98%  
15 12% 91%  
16 19% 79%  
17 24% 60% Median
18 19% 36%  
19 9% 18%  
20 6% 9%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 9% 97%  
12 17% 88%  
13 24% 71% Median
14 22% 47%  
15 15% 25%  
16 7% 10%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0.6% 98%  
5 16% 97%  
6 32% 81% Median
7 30% 50%  
8 14% 20%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 1.3% 98%  
5 15% 97%  
6 27% 82%  
7 31% 55% Median
8 18% 24%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–77 71–78 70–79 69–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–67 60–68 59–69 57–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.7% 55–61 54–62 53–63 51–64
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 67% 48–55 47–56 47–57 45–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 46 6% 43–49 42–51 41–52 40–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 2% 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 42 0% 39–46 38–46 37–47 36–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 29–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 29–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 32–38 31–39 29–39 28–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 30 0% 27–33 26–34 25–35 23–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–26 20–27 19–28 17–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.9% 99.5%  
70 3% 98.6%  
71 5% 96%  
72 10% 91%  
73 15% 81%  
74 16% 66% Median
75 17% 50%  
76 16% 33%  
77 9% 16%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 4% Last Result
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.6%  
60 4% 97%  
61 6% 93%  
62 11% 87%  
63 15% 75%  
64 15% 60% Median
65 19% 45% Last Result
66 11% 27%  
67 8% 16%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7% Majority
52 1.4% 99.1%  
53 2% 98% Last Result
54 5% 95%  
55 9% 91%  
56 13% 81%  
57 20% 68% Median
58 15% 48%  
59 16% 33%  
60 6% 17%  
61 4% 11%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 3% 98%  
48 5% 95%  
49 8% 89%  
50 14% 81%  
51 12% 67% Majority
52 15% 55% Median
53 14% 40%  
54 12% 26%  
55 8% 15%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.7% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 4% 97%  
43 7% 94%  
44 11% 87%  
45 19% 76%  
46 13% 57% Median
47 11% 43%  
48 11% 33%  
49 12% 21%  
50 4% 9%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 4% 97%  
42 6% 93%  
43 11% 86%  
44 17% 75%  
45 14% 58% Last Result, Median
46 14% 44%  
47 11% 30%  
48 11% 19%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.7%  
38 3% 97%  
39 5% 95%  
40 13% 89%  
41 11% 76%  
42 15% 64% Median
43 19% 50%  
44 9% 30%  
45 9% 21%  
46 6% 11%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 4% 96%  
33 8% 93%  
34 12% 85%  
35 17% 72%  
36 14% 55% Median
37 16% 41%  
38 10% 25%  
39 8% 15%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 1.0% 99.3%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 10% 92%  
34 11% 82%  
35 17% 71% Median
36 17% 53%  
37 13% 37%  
38 10% 24%  
39 7% 14%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.9% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.3% Last Result
30 2% 97%  
31 4% 96%  
32 9% 91%  
33 13% 82%  
34 17% 70% Median
35 16% 53%  
36 13% 36%  
37 10% 23%  
38 7% 13%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.4% 99.7%  
24 1.0% 99.4%  
25 2% 98%  
26 3% 96%  
27 5% 93%  
28 9% 88%  
29 16% 79%  
30 21% 63% Median
31 18% 42%  
32 11% 24%  
33 6% 12%  
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.5% 99.7%  
18 0.9% 99.2%  
19 2% 98%  
20 5% 96%  
21 6% 91%  
22 17% 85%  
23 21% 69% Median
24 19% 47%  
25 13% 29%  
26 8% 16%  
27 4% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations