Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–30 January 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.7% 25.9–29.6% 25.4–30.1% 25.0–30.6% 24.2–31.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.4–22.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 11–15 10–16
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.3%  
28 6% 97%  
29 11% 91%  
30 19% 80%  
31 20% 60% Median
32 21% 40%  
33 14% 19%  
34 4% 5% Last Result
35 1.0% 1.4%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
20 4% 99.2%  
21 7% 96%  
22 27% 88%  
23 25% 61% Median
24 18% 37%  
25 12% 18%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.5% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.8%  
18 4% 98.8%  
19 8% 94%  
20 16% 86%  
21 37% 70% Median
22 21% 33%  
23 9% 12%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 12% 98%  
12 28% 86%  
13 32% 58% Median
14 17% 25%  
15 6% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 29% 97%  
7 41% 68% Median
8 17% 26%  
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 1.5% 99.3%  
5 19% 98%  
6 40% 79% Median
7 31% 38%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–78 71–78 70–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–63 58–64 58–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 96% 52–56 51–57 50–57 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 61% 49–54 48–54 48–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 74% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 36–40 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–37 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 5% 97%  
73 12% 92%  
74 18% 80%  
75 21% 61% Median
76 18% 40%  
77 17% 22%  
78 4% 5%  
79 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 5% 98%  
59 11% 93%  
60 22% 82%  
61 21% 60% Median
62 16% 39%  
63 16% 23%  
64 4% 7%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.9% 99.7%  
50 3% 98.8%  
51 6% 96% Majority
52 9% 90%  
53 19% 81% Last Result
54 20% 62% Median
55 22% 42%  
56 13% 20%  
57 5% 7%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.4%  
48 4% 98%  
49 12% 94%  
50 22% 82%  
51 24% 61% Median, Majority
52 14% 37%  
53 12% 22%  
54 7% 11%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.7%  
48 4% 98.7%  
49 5% 95%  
50 15% 90%  
51 17% 74% Majority
52 15% 57% Median
53 15% 42%  
54 19% 26%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 5% 98%  
42 10% 93%  
43 21% 83%  
44 23% 62% Median
45 18% 38% Last Result
46 12% 20%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 5% 97%  
42 11% 92%  
43 14% 82%  
44 26% 68% Median
45 19% 42%  
46 13% 23%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 0.9%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 4% 97%  
36 15% 93%  
37 17% 78%  
38 27% 61% Median
39 12% 34%  
40 15% 23%  
41 5% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.6%  
33 3% 98%  
34 5% 96%  
35 10% 91%  
36 13% 81%  
37 20% 68% Median
38 26% 48%  
39 15% 22%  
40 6% 8%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 5% 98%  
32 7% 92%  
33 8% 85%  
34 32% 77% Median
35 29% 45%  
36 11% 16%  
37 3% 5%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 1.1% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 7% 93%  
28 17% 87%  
29 26% 70% Last Result, Median
30 23% 44%  
31 10% 21%  
32 7% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 4% 97%  
25 7% 93%  
26 12% 86%  
27 26% 74% Median
28 33% 48%  
29 11% 15%  
30 2% 4%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations