Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 30 January–2 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.2% 28.8–31.8% 28.4–32.2% 28.0–32.6% 27.3–33.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.3% 18.1–20.6% 17.7–21.0% 17.4–21.4% 16.8–22.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.4% 15.3–17.7% 14.9–18.0% 14.6–18.3% 14.1–19.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.1% 12.0–14.2% 11.7–14.6% 11.5–14.8% 11.0–15.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.3% 7.5–9.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.6–10.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.4% 2.0–3.0% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 0.9–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 32–37 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–19 15–19 15–20 15–20
Eesti 200 0 13 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.8%  
32 5% 98.9%  
33 16% 94%  
34 25% 78% Last Result
35 19% 53% Median
36 22% 34%  
37 9% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 9% 98% Last Result
20 19% 88%  
21 41% 69% Median
22 18% 28%  
23 8% 10%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 5% 99.6%  
16 18% 94%  
17 26% 76%  
18 32% 50% Median
19 14% 18%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 15% 97%  
13 35% 82% Median
14 31% 46%  
15 13% 15%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 27% 97%  
8 47% 71% Median
9 20% 23%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 7% 99.9%  
6 44% 93% Median
7 40% 48%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 71–75 70–76 69–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–64 60–65 59–65 58–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 100% 54–58 53–58 53–59 52–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 87% 50–54 50–55 49–55 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 24% 47–51 47–52 46–52 45–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0% 43–47 42–47 42–48 41–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–45 40–45 40–46 39–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 39–43 39–44 38–44 37–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 38 0% 36–40 36–41 35–41 34–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–34 29–35 28–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.4%  
71 8% 97%  
72 20% 89%  
73 34% 69%  
74 19% 36% Median
75 12% 16%  
76 4% 4%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.9%  
59 3% 99.2%  
60 9% 97%  
61 24% 87%  
62 19% 63% Median
63 23% 45%  
64 15% 22%  
65 5% 6% Last Result
66 0.8% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100% Majority
52 2% 99.7%  
53 5% 98% Last Result
54 14% 93%  
55 27% 79%  
56 19% 52% Median
57 19% 32%  
58 10% 13%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.9%  
49 4% 99.3%  
50 8% 95%  
51 21% 87% Majority
52 26% 67%  
53 22% 41% Median
54 12% 19%  
55 6% 7%  
56 1.1% 1.4%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.3%  
47 9% 96%  
48 22% 87%  
49 24% 65% Median
50 17% 40%  
51 17% 24% Majority
52 5% 7%  
53 1.3% 1.4%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 2% 99.8%  
42 4% 98%  
43 14% 94%  
44 22% 81%  
45 23% 59% Median
46 22% 36%  
47 11% 15%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 1.2% 99.7%  
40 7% 98%  
41 16% 92%  
42 21% 76%  
43 21% 54% Median
44 21% 33% Last Result
45 9% 12%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 3% 99.3%  
39 9% 97%  
40 24% 88%  
41 21% 64% Median
42 20% 43%  
43 14% 23%  
44 7% 9%  
45 1.1% 1.5%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.5% 100%  
35 3% 99.5%  
36 7% 96%  
37 17% 89%  
38 24% 72%  
39 24% 48% Median
40 17% 24%  
41 5% 7%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.9%  
29 5% 98.8%  
30 11% 94%  
31 23% 83%  
32 25% 59% Median
33 22% 35%  
34 10% 13%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 3% 99.3%  
27 10% 96%  
28 25% 86%  
29 28% 61% Last Result, Median
30 20% 33%  
31 9% 12%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.5% 99.9%  
23 7% 98%  
24 18% 91%  
25 26% 73%  
26 25% 47% Median
27 16% 22%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.0% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations