Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 31 January–6 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.5–34.4% 29.1–34.9% 28.2–35.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 16–23
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.6%  
33 5% 98.6%  
34 7% 93% Last Result
35 21% 86%  
36 28% 65% Median
37 15% 37%  
38 15% 22%  
39 4% 8%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 4% 98%  
23 12% 94%  
24 25% 82%  
25 22% 56% Median
26 20% 34%  
27 8% 14%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.7% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 11% 97%  
18 21% 86%  
19 25% 64% Median
20 24% 40%  
21 10% 15%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.8% 1.1%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 5% 99.7%  
7 23% 95%  
8 47% 72% Median
9 18% 24%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.6% 99.8%  
5 12% 99.2%  
6 35% 87%  
7 39% 52% Median
8 11% 13%  
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.6% 99.8%  
5 14% 99.2%  
6 37% 85% Median
7 39% 48%  
8 8% 9%  
9 1.4% 1.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 80 100% 78–82 78–83 77–83 76–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 65–70 64–70 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 59–63 58–64 58–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 99.5% 53–58 52–58 52–59 50–60
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 50% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 20% 47–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 38–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.6% 99.9%  
77 3% 99.3%  
78 7% 96%  
79 28% 90% Last Result
80 23% 61% Median
81 22% 39%  
82 11% 17%  
83 4% 5%  
84 0.6% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 1.2% 99.7%  
64 4% 98.5%  
65 6% 95% Last Result
66 20% 89%  
67 20% 69% Median
68 22% 49%  
69 16% 27%  
70 8% 11%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.5%  
58 6% 98%  
59 14% 92%  
60 16% 78%  
61 22% 62% Median
62 19% 39%  
63 12% 20%  
64 6% 9%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.7% 0.9%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98.5%  
53 10% 94%  
54 18% 84%  
55 23% 65% Median
56 18% 43%  
57 15% 25%  
58 5% 10%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.0% 1.5% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 1.4% 99.4%  
47 4% 98%  
48 11% 95%  
49 14% 84%  
50 19% 69% Median
51 26% 50% Majority
52 13% 23%  
53 6% 10%  
54 4% 5%  
55 0.9% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 4% 97%  
47 11% 93%  
48 17% 82%  
49 28% 65% Median
50 18% 38%  
51 10% 20% Majority
52 5% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.9% 1.0%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 7% 97%  
42 9% 90%  
43 19% 81%  
44 27% 62% Median
45 18% 35% Last Result
46 9% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.1%  
40 7% 97%  
41 13% 89%  
42 26% 77%  
43 19% 50% Median
44 16% 32% Last Result
45 9% 15%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 4% 98%  
40 6% 94%  
41 9% 89%  
42 31% 80% Median
43 25% 49%  
44 11% 24%  
45 6% 13%  
46 5% 7% Last Result
47 2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 1.2% 99.5%  
29 7% 98%  
30 11% 92%  
31 18% 81%  
32 24% 62% Median
33 16% 38%  
34 15% 22%  
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 1.4% 99.7%  
28 3% 98%  
29 10% 96% Last Result
30 13% 86%  
31 31% 72%  
32 15% 42% Median
33 16% 27%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 7% 98%  
24 16% 91%  
25 22% 74%  
26 23% 53% Median
27 17% 29%  
28 9% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.8% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations