Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 6–9 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.7% 30.2–33.3% 29.7–33.7% 29.4–34.1% 28.7–34.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.6% 17.3–19.9% 17.0–20.3% 16.7–20.6% 16.1–21.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.7% 14.6–17.0% 14.3–17.4% 14.0–17.7% 13.4–18.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.1% 11.0–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.5–13.8% 10.0–14.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.8% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.3% 7.0–10.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 34–39 34–39 33–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Eesti 200 0 12 11–13 11–14 10–14 10–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 8–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 8% 98% Last Result
35 19% 90%  
36 27% 71% Median
37 23% 44%  
38 12% 21%  
39 8% 9%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 7% 98%  
19 23% 91% Last Result
20 36% 68% Median
21 24% 33%  
22 8% 9%  
23 1.2% 1.4%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 10% 96%  
16 36% 86%  
17 34% 51% Median
18 13% 17%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 20% 97%  
12 44% 77% Median
13 26% 33%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 9% 99.4%  
8 43% 90% Median
9 38% 48%  
10 8% 9%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 6% 99.8%  
7 46% 94% Median
8 41% 48%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 71–75 70–75 69–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 63–67 62–67 62–68 61–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 100% 54–58 54–59 53–59 52–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 95% 51–55 51–55 50–56 49–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 52 88% 50–54 50–55 50–55 49–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0% 43–47 43–47 42–48 41–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0% 43–47 42–47 42–48 41–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 42–46 42–46 41–47 40–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–38 34–39 34–39 33–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 32 0% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–26 21–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 3% 99.4%  
71 11% 96%  
72 26% 86%  
73 27% 60% Median
74 20% 33%  
75 11% 13%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 6% 99.2%  
63 10% 94%  
64 23% 83% Median
65 31% 60% Last Result
66 16% 29%  
67 11% 14%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.4% Last Result
54 10% 97%  
55 14% 87%  
56 27% 74% Median
57 26% 46%  
58 11% 20%  
59 7% 10%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 1.3% 99.8%  
50 3% 98%  
51 9% 95% Majority
52 23% 86%  
53 36% 63% Median
54 15% 27%  
55 8% 12%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.8% 0.9%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.6%  
50 10% 98%  
51 23% 88% Median, Majority
52 19% 64%  
53 19% 45%  
54 19% 26%  
55 6% 8%  
56 1.5% 2% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.4% 99.8%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 24% 88%  
45 23% 64% Median
46 29% 41%  
47 9% 12%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 4% 99.0%  
43 14% 95%  
44 28% 81% Median
45 21% 53%  
46 16% 33% Last Result
47 13% 17%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 4% 99.2%  
42 15% 95%  
43 25% 80% Median
44 20% 55% Last Result
45 22% 35%  
46 10% 13%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 7% 98%  
35 17% 92%  
36 20% 74%  
37 27% 55% Median
38 20% 28%  
39 5% 7%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.4% 99.8%  
30 5% 98%  
31 13% 93%  
32 31% 80% Median
33 27% 48%  
34 14% 22%  
35 6% 8%  
36 1.0% 1.4%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 4% 98.9%  
26 14% 94%  
27 31% 81% Median
28 28% 49%  
29 16% 21% Last Result
30 4% 5%  
31 1.0% 1.2%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 8% 98%  
23 18% 90%  
24 45% 72% Median
25 14% 28%  
26 11% 13%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations