Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–13 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.5% 25.7–29.4% 25.2–29.9% 24.8–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 21–24 20–25 19–26 19–27
Eesti 200 0 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 8–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 5% 98%  
29 13% 93%  
30 17% 80%  
31 27% 63% Median
32 18% 37%  
33 9% 19%  
34 7% 9% Last Result
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
20 4% 98.9%  
21 11% 95%  
22 20% 84%  
23 28% 64% Median
24 19% 36%  
25 11% 16%  
26 4% 5%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.6%  
20 6% 96%  
21 21% 90%  
22 25% 70% Median
23 22% 45%  
24 14% 22%  
25 6% 8%  
26 2% 3% Last Result
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 7% 99.5%  
9 22% 92%  
10 35% 70% Median
11 27% 36%  
12 7% 9%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 22% 94%  
8 40% 72% Median
9 25% 32%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 9% 99.5%  
6 45% 90% Median
7 32% 45%  
8 10% 13%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–79 74–79 73–79 72–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–64 59–65 58–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 97% 52–57 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 94% 51–56 50–56 50–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 94% 51–56 50–56 50–57 49–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.4% 43–48 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 45 0.4% 43–48 43–49 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 37–42 36–42 36–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.8% 99.9%  
73 3% 99.1%  
74 8% 96%  
75 17% 88%  
76 25% 72% Median
77 26% 47%  
78 11% 21%  
79 8% 10% Last Result
80 2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.2%  
59 6% 97%  
60 10% 91%  
61 18% 81%  
62 24% 63% Median
63 18% 40%  
64 12% 22%  
65 7% 10% Last Result
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 6% 97% Majority
52 12% 91%  
53 18% 79% Last Result
54 22% 61% Median
55 17% 39%  
56 12% 22%  
57 7% 10%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 9% 94% Majority
52 16% 84%  
53 20% 69% Median
54 22% 49%  
55 15% 27%  
56 7% 12%  
57 3% 5% Last Result
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 1.4% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 9% 94% Majority
52 17% 85%  
53 22% 68% Median
54 19% 46%  
55 14% 27%  
56 8% 12%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.1% 1.5%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.5%  
42 5% 98%  
43 11% 94%  
44 16% 83%  
45 18% 67% Last Result, Median
46 22% 49%  
47 16% 27%  
48 6% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.6%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 16% 89%  
45 29% 74% Median
46 14% 45%  
47 15% 31%  
48 9% 16%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 6% 98%  
37 12% 92%  
38 15% 80%  
39 26% 65% Median
40 19% 39%  
41 10% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.7% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.8%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 6% 95%  
36 16% 89%  
37 28% 73% Median
38 16% 45%  
39 14% 29%  
40 10% 15%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.5%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 91%  
36 27% 80% Median
37 16% 53%  
38 15% 37%  
39 15% 22%  
40 4% 7%  
41 1.4% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.2%  
27 8% 96%  
28 17% 88%  
29 22% 71% Last Result, Median
30 21% 49%  
31 17% 28%  
32 7% 11%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.0% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 6% 98%  
27 14% 92%  
28 24% 79% Median
29 21% 55%  
30 18% 34%  
31 9% 16%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations