Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 13–16 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.0% 29.5–32.5% 29.1–32.9% 28.7–33.3% 28.1–34.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.2% 16.0–18.4% 15.7–18.8% 15.4–19.1% 14.9–19.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.2% 15.0–17.4% 14.7–17.8% 14.4–18.1% 13.9–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.4% 12.4–14.6% 12.1–14.9% 11.8–15.2% 11.3–15.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.6% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.3–10.1% 6.9–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.3% 6.5–8.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.7–9.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 2.1–3.1% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 2.1% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–22
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–20
Eesti 200 0 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 12–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 4% 99.5%  
34 10% 96% Last Result
35 31% 86%  
36 22% 54% Median
37 20% 33%  
38 9% 13%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 12% 97%  
18 27% 85%  
19 37% 58% Last Result, Median
20 17% 21%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 4% 99.6%  
16 19% 95%  
17 27% 77% Median
18 33% 50%  
19 14% 17%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 6% 99.6%  
13 14% 94%  
14 53% 80% Median
15 19% 27%  
16 6% 8%  
17 1.5% 1.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 15% 99.2%  
8 46% 85% Median
9 31% 38%  
10 6% 7% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 34% 97%  
7 56% 63% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 70–73 70–74 69–74 68–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 59–63 59–64 58–64 58–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 99.7% 53–56 52–57 52–57 51–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 96% 51–55 51–56 50–56 50–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 56% 49–53 49–53 48–54 47–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 43–46 42–47 41–47 40–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–44 40–45 40–45 39–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 41–44 40–45 40–45 39–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 36 0% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 24–30
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.9%  
69 4% 99.3%  
70 8% 95%  
71 20% 87%  
72 37% 67% Median
73 21% 30%  
74 7% 9%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 3% 99.6%  
59 8% 97%  
60 23% 89%  
61 26% 66%  
62 21% 40% Median
63 13% 19%  
64 5% 6%  
65 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 2% 99.7% Majority
52 5% 98%  
53 15% 92% Last Result
54 32% 78%  
55 20% 46% Median
56 16% 25%  
57 7% 9%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 3% 99.6%  
51 7% 96% Majority
52 17% 89%  
53 31% 73% Median
54 23% 42%  
55 12% 19%  
56 5% 7%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.9% 99.9%  
48 3% 99.0%  
49 12% 96%  
50 29% 84%  
51 24% 56% Median, Majority
52 18% 31%  
53 9% 13%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.7% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 3% 99.3%  
42 6% 96%  
43 26% 91%  
44 28% 64% Last Result, Median
45 17% 37%  
46 13% 19%  
47 5% 7%  
48 1.3% 1.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.2% 99.8%  
40 7% 98.6%  
41 15% 92%  
42 16% 77%  
43 26% 61% Median
44 26% 35%  
45 6% 8%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.2% 99.8%  
40 5% 98.7%  
41 18% 94%  
42 27% 76%  
43 23% 48% Median
44 15% 25%  
45 7% 10%  
46 2% 2% Last Result
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 4% 99.1%  
34 10% 95%  
35 18% 85%  
36 25% 67% Median
37 29% 43%  
38 11% 14%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.5% 99.8%  
30 7% 98%  
31 20% 92%  
32 22% 72% Median
33 29% 50%  
34 16% 21%  
35 5% 6%  
36 0.9% 1.1%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 11% 97%  
26 19% 86%  
27 35% 67% Median
28 20% 32%  
29 9% 11% Last Result
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.3%  
24 16% 95%  
25 23% 79% Median
26 23% 56%  
27 25% 33%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations