Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.4% 18.5–25.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
Erakond Isamaa 12 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 7–13
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 6% 97%  
31 13% 92%  
32 21% 78%  
33 19% 57% Median
34 21% 38% Last Result
35 11% 17%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.5% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100% Last Result
20 2% 99.7%  
21 6% 98%  
22 20% 92%  
23 21% 72%  
24 22% 51% Median
25 17% 29%  
26 8% 12%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 14% 97%  
18 21% 83%  
19 24% 62% Median
20 20% 39%  
21 15% 19%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 6% 99.5%  
9 24% 94%  
10 35% 70% Median
11 24% 35%  
12 9% 11% Last Result
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 16% 97%  
9 34% 81% Median
10 33% 47%  
11 10% 13%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 2% 98%  
5 23% 97%  
6 46% 74% Median
7 23% 28%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–78 73–78 72–79 71–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 64–69 64–69 63–70 62–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.9% 54–59 53–60 53–60 52–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 89% 50–55 50–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 76% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 49 20% 46–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 35 0% 33–38 32–38 31–38 30–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 27–33 26–33 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–28 19–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 3% 99.4%  
73 7% 96%  
74 17% 89%  
75 21% 72%  
76 24% 50% Median
77 16% 26%  
78 7% 11%  
79 3% 4% Last Result
80 1.0% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 1.0% 99.8%  
63 2% 98.8%  
64 13% 97%  
65 13% 84% Last Result
66 22% 72%  
67 23% 50% Median
68 7% 27%  
69 16% 20%  
70 3% 5%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.7% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 1.2% 99.7%  
53 4% 98.5% Last Result
54 10% 94%  
55 16% 84%  
56 19% 68%  
57 18% 49% Median
58 17% 31%  
59 9% 14%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.8% 99.7%  
49 3% 98.9%  
50 7% 96%  
51 15% 89% Majority
52 18% 74%  
53 23% 56% Median
54 17% 33%  
55 8% 16%  
56 4% 8%  
57 3% 4% Last Result
58 0.7% 0.9%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 4% 99.1%  
49 7% 95%  
50 12% 89%  
51 16% 76% Majority
52 23% 61% Median
53 17% 37%  
54 11% 20%  
55 6% 9%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.4% 99.6%  
45 3% 98%  
46 5% 95%  
47 14% 90%  
48 14% 76%  
49 21% 63% Median
50 21% 41%  
51 13% 20% Majority
52 5% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 4% 99.0%  
40 7% 95%  
41 11% 88%  
42 27% 77%  
43 22% 50% Median
44 13% 28%  
45 7% 15% Last Result
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 7% 97%  
41 11% 90%  
42 17% 78%  
43 24% 62% Median
44 18% 38%  
45 12% 20%  
46 5% 8% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.6%  
35 2% 98%  
36 5% 95%  
37 10% 90%  
38 25% 80%  
39 17% 55% Median
40 18% 38%  
41 13% 20%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.1%  
32 3% 97%  
33 15% 94%  
34 11% 79%  
35 25% 68% Median
36 22% 42%  
37 10% 21%  
38 9% 11%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.7% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.5%  
26 3% 98%  
27 6% 95%  
28 17% 90%  
29 23% 73% Last Result
30 18% 50% Median
31 17% 31%  
32 9% 14%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.5%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 4% 97%  
23 13% 94%  
24 17% 80%  
25 23% 63% Median
26 20% 40%  
27 15% 21%  
28 4% 6%  
29 1.2% 1.5%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations