Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 20–22 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.2% 26.8–29.7% 26.4–30.1% 26.0–30.5% 25.4–31.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.1% 16.9–19.4% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.7–20.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 13.9% 12.8–15.1% 12.5–15.4% 12.3–15.7% 11.8–16.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.5% 12.5–14.7% 12.2–15.0% 11.9–15.3% 11.4–15.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.4% 9.5–11.4% 9.2–11.8% 9.0–12.0% 8.6–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.1% 8.3–10.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.4–11.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–35 30–35 30–36 29–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–21 18–22 17–22 17–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 7–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 5% 98.9%  
31 12% 94%  
32 26% 82%  
33 27% 57% Median
34 18% 30% Last Result
35 9% 12%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 11% 97%  
19 28% 86% Last Result
20 28% 58% Median
21 23% 30%  
22 5% 7%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.9%  
13 13% 98.6%  
14 28% 85%  
15 38% 57% Median
16 15% 19%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.8%  
13 19% 95%  
14 37% 76% Median
15 27% 39%  
16 10% 12%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.9% 100%  
9 11% 99.0%  
10 37% 88% Last Result
11 37% 51% Median
12 12% 13%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 27% 97%  
9 41% 70% Median
10 24% 29%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 67 100% 65–69 65–70 65–70 63–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–64 59–64 59–65 58–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 90% 51–54 50–55 50–56 49–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 86% 50–54 50–55 49–55 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 2% 46–49 45–50 44–50 44–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 42–45 41–46 41–46 40–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–45 41–46 40–46 39–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 40–44 40–44 39–45 38–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 34 0% 33–36 32–37 32–37 31–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.5%  
65 10% 98%  
66 16% 87%  
67 30% 71%  
68 23% 41% Median
69 14% 19%  
70 4% 5%  
71 0.9% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 1.3% 99.6%  
59 8% 98%  
60 14% 91%  
61 25% 76%  
62 22% 51% Median
63 19% 29%  
64 8% 10%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 2% 99.6%  
50 8% 98%  
51 14% 90% Majority
52 26% 76%  
53 18% 50% Last Result, Median
54 22% 31%  
55 6% 9%  
56 3% 3%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 11% 97%  
51 17% 86% Majority
52 24% 69%  
53 23% 45% Median
54 14% 23%  
55 7% 9%  
56 1.5% 2% Last Result
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 6% 97%  
46 17% 91%  
47 29% 75%  
48 24% 46% Median
49 12% 22%  
50 7% 9%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 1.5% 99.6%  
41 5% 98%  
42 23% 93%  
43 18% 70%  
44 29% 52% Median
45 14% 23%  
46 7% 9%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.5%  
41 10% 96%  
42 15% 87%  
43 28% 72%  
44 21% 44% Last Result, Median
45 15% 22%  
46 6% 7%  
47 0.9% 1.1%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 1.4% 99.9%  
39 3% 98.5%  
40 17% 95%  
41 23% 78%  
42 22% 55% Median
43 20% 33%  
44 9% 13%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 5% 98%  
33 21% 93%  
34 23% 72%  
35 25% 49% Median
36 17% 25%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 9% 97%  
33 23% 89%  
34 27% 66%  
35 19% 39% Median
36 14% 20%  
37 6% 7%  
38 0.8% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 6% 98%  
29 18% 92% Last Result
30 31% 74%  
31 24% 43% Median
32 13% 19%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.0% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 12% 98%  
24 16% 87%  
25 28% 71%  
26 28% 42% Median
27 10% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations