Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–27 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–33
Eesti Reformierakond 34 27 25–29 25–30 24–30 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 17–24
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 7% 98%  
26 12% 91%  
27 23% 79%  
28 19% 56% Median
29 16% 37%  
30 12% 21%  
31 7% 9%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 10% 95%  
26 22% 85%  
27 16% 64% Median
28 23% 48%  
29 16% 25%  
30 6% 8%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.8% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 9% 97%  
19 20% 88%  
20 26% 68% Median
21 23% 42%  
22 11% 18%  
23 5% 7%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.4% 100%  
7 6% 99.6%  
8 21% 94%  
9 40% 73% Median
10 23% 33%  
11 8% 10%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 17% 97%  
8 37% 80% Median
9 30% 43%  
10 11% 14%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 28% 94%  
8 31% 66% Median
9 20% 35%  
10 14% 16% Last Result
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–78 72–78 72–78 71–79
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–66 60–67 60–67 58–68
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 56 99.9% 54–59 53–60 53–60 52–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 55 99.3% 53–58 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 48 13% 45–51 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 6% 45–50 44–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 37 0% 34–39 33–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 35 0% 33–38 32–39 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 1.2% 99.9%  
72 5% 98.7%  
73 10% 93%  
74 17% 83%  
75 15% 66% Median
76 20% 51%  
77 19% 32%  
78 10% 13%  
79 2% 2% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.6% 100%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 4% 98%  
61 10% 95%  
62 14% 85%  
63 18% 70% Median
64 23% 52%  
65 13% 30% Last Result
66 11% 17%  
67 4% 6%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 2% 99.5%  
53 6% 98%  
54 8% 91%  
55 15% 83%  
56 19% 69% Median
57 17% 50% Last Result
58 18% 33%  
59 8% 15%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 3% 99.3% Majority
52 5% 96%  
53 11% 91% Last Result
54 17% 80%  
55 19% 63% Median
56 21% 45%  
57 11% 24%  
58 8% 13%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 9% 97% Last Result
46 11% 88%  
47 15% 77%  
48 21% 62% Median
49 12% 41%  
50 16% 29%  
51 9% 13% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.7% 1.1%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.2% 99.6%  
44 5% 98%  
45 9% 94%  
46 13% 85%  
47 24% 72% Median
48 21% 48%  
49 12% 28%  
50 9% 16%  
51 5% 6% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.1% 99.7%  
40 3% 98.6%  
41 8% 96%  
42 15% 88%  
43 16% 72% Median
44 22% 56%  
45 14% 34%  
46 11% 20%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 4% 99.1%  
34 7% 95%  
35 11% 88%  
36 24% 77% Median
37 22% 53%  
38 15% 31%  
39 9% 17%  
40 6% 8%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 6% 98%  
34 13% 92%  
35 19% 79%  
36 18% 60% Median
37 20% 42%  
38 14% 22%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.2% 99.8%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 9% 96%  
34 17% 88%  
35 18% 71% Median
36 18% 53%  
37 19% 35%  
38 11% 15%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.5% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.4% 99.7%  
32 5% 98%  
33 8% 94%  
34 17% 85%  
35 22% 68% Median
36 20% 46%  
37 11% 26%  
38 10% 15%  
39 4% 5%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.1%  
26 9% 95%  
27 17% 86%  
28 23% 69% Median
29 22% 46%  
30 13% 24%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations