Opinion Poll by RAIT Faktum&Ariko, 10–27 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.5% 22.8–26.4% 22.3–26.9% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.4% 20.8–24.2% 20.3–24.7% 19.9–25.2% 19.1–26.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.3% 15.8–19.0% 15.4–19.4% 15.0–19.8% 14.4–20.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.6–15.2% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.5%  
25 8% 97%  
26 13% 89%  
27 24% 76%  
28 22% 52% Median
29 17% 31%  
30 9% 14%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.2% 1.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.6%  
23 11% 95%  
24 18% 84%  
25 24% 65% Median
26 22% 42%  
27 12% 20%  
28 6% 8%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.1%  
17 14% 95%  
18 23% 81%  
19 29% 58% Median
20 16% 28%  
21 9% 12%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 13% 97%  
13 23% 84%  
14 34% 61% Median
15 15% 27%  
16 10% 12%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 7% 99.6%  
7 33% 92%  
8 33% 60% Median
9 22% 26%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 7% 99.5%  
7 32% 92%  
8 37% 61% Median
9 18% 23%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 69–74 69–74 68–75 67–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 57–64 57–64 56–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 87% 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 75% 49–54 49–55 48–55 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 46 2% 44–49 43–50 43–50 41–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0% 42–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 43 0% 41–45 41–46 40–47 39–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 35 0% 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 34 0% 32–37 32–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 1.0% 99.8%  
68 3% 98.7%  
69 8% 96%  
70 19% 88%  
71 18% 69%  
72 22% 52% Median
73 16% 29%  
74 9% 13%  
75 4% 5%  
76 1.2% 1.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.2% 99.7%  
57 4% 98%  
58 8% 95%  
59 14% 87%  
60 21% 73%  
61 22% 52% Median
62 15% 30%  
63 10% 16%  
64 4% 5%  
65 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.7%  
49 4% 98.6%  
50 8% 95%  
51 12% 87% Majority
52 20% 75%  
53 17% 55% Last Result, Median
54 20% 38%  
55 10% 18%  
56 6% 8%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.8%  
49 7% 96%  
50 14% 89%  
51 19% 75% Majority
52 24% 55% Median
53 15% 31%  
54 9% 17%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.5% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 4% 98%  
44 10% 93%  
45 17% 84%  
46 20% 67%  
47 20% 47% Median
48 12% 27%  
49 9% 15%  
50 4% 6%  
51 1.2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 6% 97%  
42 13% 91%  
43 21% 79%  
44 22% 58% Median
45 20% 37% Last Result
46 9% 17%  
47 6% 8%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.8% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.9%  
41 11% 96%  
42 19% 85%  
43 21% 66%  
44 22% 46% Median
45 14% 23%  
46 7% 10%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 3% 98.9%  
33 9% 96%  
34 15% 87%  
35 25% 72%  
36 20% 47% Median
37 15% 27%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.0%  
33 8% 95%  
34 16% 88%  
35 23% 72%  
36 22% 49% Median
37 14% 26%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.8%  
31 3% 98%  
32 11% 96%  
33 18% 84%  
34 18% 66%  
35 21% 48% Median
36 12% 27%  
37 11% 15%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.3% Last Result
30 5% 97%  
31 12% 91%  
32 17% 79%  
33 23% 62% Median
34 20% 39%  
35 11% 19%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 8% 97%  
25 15% 89%  
26 23% 74%  
27 21% 51% Median
28 16% 29%  
29 9% 13%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.9% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations