Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for Eesti Päevaleht, 20–28 February 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 27.7–32.5% 27.0–33.2% 26.5–33.8% 25.4–35.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.2–19.1% 14.6–19.7% 14.2–20.2% 13.4–21.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.0% 13.3–17.0% 12.8–17.6% 12.4–18.1% 11.6–19.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.3–16.0% 11.8–16.5% 11.4–17.0% 10.7–18.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 7.0–11.6% 6.4–12.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.5–11.3%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.7% 1.6–5.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.5% 0.9–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–24
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Eesti 200 0 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–11 7–11 6–12 6–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 4% 97%  
32 8% 93%  
33 10% 85%  
34 16% 75% Last Result
35 21% 59% Median
36 14% 38%  
37 9% 24%  
38 8% 15%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.8%  
15 4% 98.7%  
16 9% 95%  
17 15% 85%  
18 20% 70% Median
19 21% 50%  
20 15% 29%  
21 8% 14%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 6% 98%  
14 13% 92%  
15 19% 80%  
16 26% 61% Median
17 15% 35%  
18 11% 20%  
19 6% 8% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7%  
12 7% 98%  
13 15% 91%  
14 23% 76%  
15 22% 53% Median
16 15% 31%  
17 9% 16%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 10% 97%  
8 25% 87%  
9 28% 62% Median
10 21% 34% Last Result
11 9% 13%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 2% 99.8%  
6 14% 98%  
7 26% 84%  
8 28% 58% Median
9 20% 29%  
10 7% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0.4% 0.9%  
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 69 100% 66–72 66–73 65–74 63–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–62 55–63 54–64 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 89% 50–57 49–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 70% 48–55 48–56 47–56 45–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 57% 48–54 47–55 46–56 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0.4% 41–47 40–48 39–48 38–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0.1% 40–46 39–47 38–47 36–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 34 0% 32–37 31–38 30–39 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 22–28 21–28 21–29 20–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.8%  
64 1.0% 99.3%  
65 3% 98%  
66 6% 96%  
67 10% 90%  
68 16% 80%  
69 17% 64% Median
70 13% 48%  
71 16% 35%  
72 11% 19%  
73 5% 8%  
74 2% 3%  
75 1.0% 1.3%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 1.3% 99.5%  
54 2% 98%  
55 5% 96%  
56 10% 91%  
57 12% 82%  
58 17% 70%  
59 13% 52% Median
60 18% 40%  
61 8% 22%  
62 8% 14%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 4% 98%  
50 5% 94%  
51 10% 89% Majority
52 16% 79%  
53 10% 62% Median
54 18% 52%  
55 15% 34%  
56 8% 19%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.4% 99.4%  
47 3% 98%  
48 5% 95%  
49 7% 90%  
50 12% 82%  
51 16% 70% Majority
52 17% 54% Median
53 10% 37%  
54 14% 27%  
55 7% 13%  
56 4% 6% Last Result
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.7%  
47 4% 96%  
48 8% 92%  
49 12% 84%  
50 14% 72%  
51 17% 57% Median, Majority
52 15% 40%  
53 11% 26% Last Result
54 8% 15%  
55 4% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.6%  
39 2% 98.8%  
40 6% 96%  
41 6% 91%  
42 11% 85%  
43 18% 74%  
44 16% 56% Last Result, Median
45 13% 40%  
46 10% 27%  
47 11% 17%  
48 4% 6%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.4% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 98%  
39 6% 94%  
40 13% 89%  
41 13% 76%  
42 17% 63% Median
43 14% 45%  
44 13% 31%  
45 8% 17%  
46 6% 10%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 10% 91%  
41 11% 81%  
42 18% 71%  
43 14% 52% Median
44 14% 38%  
45 10% 24%  
46 7% 14% Last Result
47 5% 7%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 3% 98%  
32 6% 95%  
33 10% 89%  
34 15% 79%  
35 15% 63% Median
36 21% 49%  
37 11% 27%  
38 8% 17%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.3%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.6%  
30 4% 98.8%  
31 4% 95%  
32 11% 91%  
33 13% 79%  
34 16% 66% Median
35 18% 50%  
36 12% 31%  
37 10% 20%  
38 6% 10%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.1%  
24 5% 97%  
25 9% 92%  
26 15% 83%  
27 18% 68% Median
28 18% 50%  
29 17% 32%  
30 7% 15%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 1.2% 99.7%  
21 4% 98.5%  
22 5% 94%  
23 11% 89%  
24 23% 78%  
25 19% 56% Median
26 12% 37%  
27 9% 24%  
28 11% 15%  
29 3% 4% Last Result
30 0.9% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations