Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 28 February–2 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.0% 27.5–30.4% 27.1–30.8% 26.8–31.2% 26.1–31.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.3% 14.2–16.5% 13.9–16.9% 13.6–17.2% 13.1–17.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.3% 13.2–15.4% 12.9–15.8% 12.6–16.0% 12.1–16.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.5% 10.5–12.5% 10.2–12.8% 10.0–13.1% 9.6–13.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.2% 6.4–8.1% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.6% 5.7–9.0%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–3.0% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.6–2.9% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–35 31–36 31–37 30–38
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–20
Eesti 200 0 16 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.4% 99.9%  
31 5% 98%  
32 13% 94%  
33 25% 80%  
34 28% 55% Last Result, Median
35 18% 27%  
36 6% 9%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 5% 99.4%  
16 21% 94%  
17 34% 73% Median
18 27% 40%  
19 10% 13%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 17% 96%  
16 34% 79% Median
17 30% 45%  
18 12% 15%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 5% 99.4%  
14 20% 95%  
15 43% 75% Median
16 21% 32%  
17 9% 11%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 10% 99.5% Last Result
11 29% 89%  
12 34% 60% Median
13 22% 26%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 36% 96%  
7 42% 60% Median
8 15% 18%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 66 100% 64–68 64–69 63–69 62–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.9% 54–57 53–58 53–59 52–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 87% 50–54 50–55 49–55 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 61% 49–53 48–53 48–54 47–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 49 12% 47–51 46–51 46–52 45–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 0.1% 43–47 43–48 42–48 42–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 39–42 38–43 37–43 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 39 0% 37–41 37–42 36–42 35–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 34–38 33–38 33–39 32–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 32 0% 31–34 30–35 30–35 29–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 4% 99.3%  
64 10% 96%  
65 22% 86%  
66 26% 64% Median
67 22% 37%  
68 11% 16%  
69 4% 5%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 2% 99.6%  
53 5% 98%  
54 15% 92%  
55 26% 77%  
56 23% 51% Median
57 19% 28%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.8% 99.9%  
49 4% 99.1%  
50 8% 95%  
51 21% 87% Majority
52 19% 66%  
53 28% 47% Median
54 11% 19%  
55 7% 8%  
56 1.3% 2% Last Result
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 1.1% 99.8%  
48 4% 98.7%  
49 14% 95%  
50 20% 81%  
51 27% 61% Median, Majority
52 19% 34%  
53 11% 15%  
54 3% 4%  
55 1.2% 1.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.4% 100%  
45 1.2% 99.6%  
46 4% 98%  
47 13% 94%  
48 23% 81%  
49 27% 58% Median
50 20% 32%  
51 8% 12% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.4% 100%  
42 3% 99.6%  
43 7% 97%  
44 16% 90% Last Result
45 24% 74%  
46 24% 50% Median
47 17% 26%  
48 7% 9%  
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.5% 100%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 6% 97%  
39 16% 91%  
40 28% 75%  
41 23% 47% Median
42 16% 24%  
43 6% 8%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.6%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.2%  
37 9% 96%  
38 22% 87%  
39 25% 65% Median
40 23% 40%  
41 11% 17%  
42 5% 7%  
43 1.1% 1.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 4% 98%  
34 14% 94%  
35 21% 80%  
36 30% 59% Median
37 17% 30%  
38 9% 13%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 2% 99.7%  
30 7% 98%  
31 16% 90%  
32 28% 74% Median
33 26% 46%  
34 13% 20%  
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 3% 99.6%  
27 8% 96%  
28 24% 88%  
29 26% 64% Median
30 24% 37%  
31 9% 13%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 3% 99.4%  
25 12% 96%  
26 22% 84%  
27 26% 63% Median
28 26% 37%  
29 7% 10% Last Result
30 3% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations