Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 February–3 March 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.3% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 13.9–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 12.9–18.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 14–17 14–18 13–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Parempoolsed 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.7% Last Result
35 4% 98.6%  
36 9% 95%  
37 14% 86%  
38 22% 71% Median
39 24% 50%  
40 14% 26%  
41 7% 12%  
42 4% 6%  
43 0.9% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.8%  
14 5% 98.6%  
15 18% 94%  
16 23% 75%  
17 29% 52% Median
18 16% 23%  
19 5% 7% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 5% 98%  
15 19% 93%  
16 27% 74% Median
17 23% 47%  
18 17% 24%  
19 5% 6%  
20 1.1% 1.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 20% 96%  
15 27% 76% Median
16 24% 49%  
17 17% 25%  
18 6% 8%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 20% 97%  
7 40% 77% Median
8 27% 37%  
9 9% 10%  
10 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 8% 99.8%  
6 24% 92%  
7 51% 68% Median
8 13% 17%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Parempoolsed

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 70 100% 68–73 68–73 67–74 66–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–64 59–65 58–65 57–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.1% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 97% 52–57 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 53 83% 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 0.4% 43–48 43–49 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 28–32 27–33 26–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 1.0% 99.8%  
67 3% 98.8%  
68 8% 96%  
69 15% 88%  
70 24% 73% Median
71 19% 49%  
72 18% 30%  
73 8% 13%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0.6% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 1.3% 99.8%  
58 2% 98.5%  
59 6% 96%  
60 16% 90%  
61 19% 74%  
62 14% 55% Median
63 26% 41%  
64 9% 15%  
65 5% 6% Last Result
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.1% Majority
52 6% 97%  
53 14% 91% Last Result
54 18% 77%  
55 17% 59% Median
56 23% 42%  
57 11% 19%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 5% 97% Majority
52 15% 93%  
53 19% 77% Median
54 17% 58%  
55 21% 41%  
56 10% 20%  
57 7% 10%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.6%  
49 5% 98%  
50 11% 94%  
51 8% 83% Majority
52 20% 75% Median
53 32% 55%  
54 11% 23%  
55 6% 13%  
56 5% 6% Last Result
57 1.0% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.7%  
42 4% 99.1%  
43 8% 95%  
44 11% 87% Last Result
45 19% 76% Median
46 27% 57%  
47 15% 29%  
48 7% 14%  
49 5% 7%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 5% 97%  
43 10% 93%  
44 14% 83%  
45 22% 68% Median
46 24% 46% Last Result
47 11% 23%  
48 8% 12%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.1%  
36 8% 97%  
37 10% 89%  
38 19% 79%  
39 24% 59% Median
40 17% 36%  
41 12% 19%  
42 5% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 1.3% 99.6%  
29 6% 98%  
30 9% 93%  
31 20% 83%  
32 24% 63% Median
33 20% 39%  
34 10% 19%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 6% 97%  
28 19% 92%  
29 26% 73% Median
30 18% 47%  
31 12% 28%  
32 12% 17%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 6% 98%  
22 14% 92%  
23 22% 78%  
24 27% 56% Median
25 14% 29%  
26 10% 15%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.8%  
20 3% 98.6%  
21 15% 96%  
22 32% 81% Median
23 19% 49%  
24 11% 30%  
25 13% 19%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.6% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations