Opinion Poll by Latvijas Fakti, 14–24 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.9% | 17.4–20.6% | 17.0–21.1% | 16.6–21.5% | 15.9–22.3% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0.0% | 18.1% | 16.7–19.8% | 16.2–20.3% | 15.9–20.7% | 15.2–21.5% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0.0% | 16.1% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.3–18.1% | 13.9–18.5% | 13.3–19.2% |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.5–15.0% | 11.2–15.4% | 10.6–16.1% |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.8–11.4% |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.7% | 98.8% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 21% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 79% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 26% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Stabilitātei! (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas attīstībai (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Suverēnā vara (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kustība Par! (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.7% | 98.8% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Latvijas Fakti
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–24 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.17%