Opinion Poll by Gemius, 31 October–6 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.1–16.6% | 13.8–17.0% | 13.5–17.3% | 13.0–17.9% |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.5–14.9% | 12.2–15.2% | 11.9–15.5% | 11.4–16.1% |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.6–13.9% | 11.3–14.2% | 11.1–14.5% | 10.6–15.1% |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.7–11.8% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.7–13.0% |
| Politiskā kustība „Bez partijām“ (*) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.6–10.1% | 7.4–10.4% | 7.0–10.9% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.4–8.2% | 6.2–8.5% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.6–9.2% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.4–5.9% | 4.2–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.8–6.8% |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.1–4.8% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.7–5.3% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.4–3.5% |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Platforma 21 (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Politiskā kustība „Bez partijām“ (*) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Platforma 21 (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 32% | 32% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Politiskā kustība „Bez partijām“ (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Politiskā kustība „Bez partijām“ (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 38% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Suverēnā vara (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 30% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Latvijas attīstībai (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kustība Par! (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stabilitātei! (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Platforma 21 (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma 21 (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gemius
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 October–6 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1410
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.51%