Opinion Poll by Gemius, 16–26 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0.0% | 16.5% | 15.3–17.8% | 15.0–18.2% | 14.7–18.5% | 14.1–19.2% |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.4–16.8% | 14.0–17.2% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.2–18.2% |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.3–12.5% | 10.0–12.8% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.3–13.6% |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.0–13.3% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.6% | 8.7–10.7% | 8.4–11.0% | 8.2–11.3% | 7.8–11.8% |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.9–6.5% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.2–7.4% |
| Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.3% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.1–3.0% |
| Platforma 21 (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Platforma 21 (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Suverēnā vara (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 75% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Austošā Saule Latvijai (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Stabilitātei! (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Latvijas attīstībai (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kustība Par! (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Platforma 21 (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma 21 (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 26% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gemius
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–26 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1423
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.55%