Opinion Poll by Gemius, 24 February–2 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) 0.0% 15.1% 13.8–16.5% 13.4–16.9% 13.1–17.2% 12.5–17.9%
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.2% 12.0–14.5% 11.6–14.9% 11.4–15.3% 10.8–15.9%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) 0.0% 8.9% 7.9–10.1% 7.6–10.4% 7.4–10.7% 7.0–11.3%
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) 0.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.5% 7.2–9.8% 6.9–10.1% 6.5–10.7%
Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) 0.0% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.7% 5.9–8.9% 5.5–9.4%
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) 0.0% 6.9% 6.1–8.0% 5.8–8.3% 5.6–8.6% 5.2–9.1%
Suverēnā vara (ECR) 0.0% 5.3% 4.6–6.2% 4.3–6.5% 4.2–6.8% 3.8–7.2%
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.0% 3.3–5.3% 3.2–5.5% 2.9–5.9%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.9%
Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–5.0%
Stabilitātei! (NI) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.3%
Latvijas attīstībai (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.6%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–2.9% 1.1–3.3%
Kustība Par! (RE) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Platforma 21 (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Suverēnā vara (ECR) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stabilitātei! (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas attīstībai (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kustība Par! (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Platforma 21 (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0% 0%  

PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 82% 100% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Mēs mainām noteikumus (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.5% Median
2 0% 0%  

Suverēnā vara (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 58% 58% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Austošā Saule Latvijai (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Stabilitātei! (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Latvijas attīstībai (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kustība Par! (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Platforma 21 (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma 21 (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 58% 58% Median
3 0% 0%  

PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 82% 100% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0% 0%  

Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations