Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–31 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.6% | 13.6–15.7% | 13.3–16.0% | 13.0–16.3% | 12.6–16.8% |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.6–13.7% | 11.4–14.0% | 11.1–14.2% | 10.7–14.7% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0.0% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.8% | 10.6–13.1% | 10.4–13.4% | 9.9–13.9% |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.1–12.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.2–13.0% |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0.0% | 10.6% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.5–11.9% | 9.3–12.1% | 8.9–12.6% |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.6% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.5–11.9% | 9.3–12.1% | 8.9–12.6% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.7–8.3% | 6.5–8.5% | 6.3–8.7% | 5.9–9.1% |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.2% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.9% |
| Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–5.0% |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.7% |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.3% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.2% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.7% |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kustība Par! (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 24% | 24% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Suverēnā vara (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.3% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Stabilitātei! (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Mēs mainām noteikumus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Latvijas attīstībai (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Austošā Saule Latvijai (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kustība Par! (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) – Suverēnā vara (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SKDS
- Commissioner(s): Latvijas Televīzija
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1809
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.27%