Opinion Poll by Vilmorus for Lietuvos Rytas, 14–23 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.0–24.4% 19.6–24.8% 18.9–25.6%
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0.0% 21.7% 20.1–23.4% 19.6–23.9% 19.3–24.4% 18.5–25.2%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.4–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (S&D) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 64% 100% Median
3 36% 36%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 74% 100% Median
3 26% 26%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 24% 100%  
2 76% 76% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 24% 100%  
2 76% 76% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations